ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) shares have seen their fair share of volatility over the last few weeks. But, the ASX bank share is facing an uncertain outlook considering everything that's going on with the US tariff announcements.
ANZ doesn't export products to the US like Breville Group Ltd (ASX: BRG) does. However, as a bank, ANZ is plugged into the Australian (and New Zealand) economy. If the Australian economy were to be indirectly impacted by the US tariffs on China, ANZ may feel the ripple effects of that.
If I were considering buying ANZ shares, there are a few things I'd want to think about, so I'll run through those three areas.
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Interest rates to be cut?
As a bank, any rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) could have a significant impact. According to various media reports, including the Australian Financial Review (AFR), a rate cut, or cuts, could happen in the coming months, in the opinion of economists.
On the one hand, rate cuts could be helpful because that could reduce the financial burden on borrowers. This could reduce the risk of rising arrears, provisions and bad debts for ANZ.
However, a rate cut could also reduce how much profit ANZ makes on its products that offer little interest to customers, such as transaction accounts. ANZ's net interest margin (NIM) could reduce if rate cuts occur.
I think rate cuts could be a net negative for ANZ's profit.
I also wonder if rate cuts could lead to increased competition from smaller banks and non-bank lenders, as we saw during the COVID-19 period.
Valuation
I regularly see ANZ shares trade at a cheaper price/earnings (P/E) ratio compared to its competitors like Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA). The main question for me is whether ANZ can grow its profit to make the current valuation seem too cheap.
According to the forecast on Commsec, the bank is projected to make earnings per share (EPS) of $2.48 in FY25, which translates into a forward price/earnings (P/E) ratio of 11.
The projection on Commsec suggests EPS could rise almost 7% in FY26, which is positive but not earth-shattering
Potential dividends
The other positive about ANZ shares is that they normally come with a sizeable dividend yield.
According to the forecast on Commsec, ANZ shares are projected to pay an annual dividend per share in FY25 of $1.70. This translates into a forward dividend yield of 6.1%, excluding franking credits.
While this isn't the biggest dividend yield on the ASX, I think it's a good dividend yield, if it's stable and can grow over time. I'd personally prefer a lower dividend yield that is more likely to grow over time, such as the one from Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (ASX: SOL).
Overall, I think ANZ shares could be a decent investment right now, but there are plenty of other things I'd rather buy, such as beaten-up tech stocks which have more growth potential.
