What does Macquarie think Pilbara Minerals shares are worth?

Is this lithium miner dirt cheap? Let's find out.

| More on:
Middle age caucasian man smiling confident drinking coffee at home.

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Pilbara Minerals Ltd (ASX: PLS) shares have been having a tough time of late.

While this is disappointing for shareholders, it could be a buying opportunity for the rest of us.

That's the view of analysts at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG), which see significant value in its shares at current levels.

What is the broker saying about Pilbara Minerals shares?

Firstly, Macquarie has been running the rule over the lithium miner's third quarter update and concedes that it fell short of expectations. It said:

3QFY25 production of 125kt was 12% below VA consensus and 34% lower QoQ, reflecting Ngungaju's transition to care and maintenance, and tie in optimisations for the P1000 project. We note plant recovery of 67.2% missed VA consensus of 69.9%. 3QFY25 sales of 125kt were in line with production, but 12% below VA consensus.

There were some positives, though. The broker adds:

Cash costs of US$430/t FOB (A$685/t FOB) were a 3% beat but 6% higher QoQ. PLS realised price of US$747/dmt beat VA consensus by 4% and was 7% above our forecast. PLS had cash of A$1.1b cash balance at quarter-end (in line with VA consensus), which was 9% lower QoQ.

It also highlights that management has reiterated its FY 2025 guidance of 700kt to 740kt of spodumene concentrate at cash costs of A$620 to A$640 per tonne. This compares to the consensus estimate of 726kt at A$631 per tonne and Macquarie's estimate of 715kt at A$620 per tonne.

Big returns

In response to the above, Macquarie has reaffirmed its outperform rating and $2.40 price target on Pilbara Minerals' shares.

Based on its current share price of $1.40, this implies potential upside of 71% for investors over the next 12 months.

Commenting on its outperform recommendation, the broker said:

Maintain Outperform: 3QFY25 was weaker than expected, but the company remains on track to achieve FY25 guidance. We prefer Pilbara at these suppressed levels and remain optimistic on the company's capital management potential following a focus on productivity.

Macquarie also spoke positively about the acquisition of Latin Resources and management's plans for its assets. It adds:

PLS successfully completed the acquisition of Latin Resources during the quarter and has commenced a targetted exploration program with the aim of infilling the existing resource, expanding the existing resource, and testing new targets to inform study optimisations with outcomes expected in 4QFY26. PLS has signalled that any project investment decision will follow the study optimisations and improvement in lithium market and conditions. Regarding P2000, PLS has deferred FS outcomes until FY27 with an FID not anticipated with spodumene at these levels.

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Materials Shares

A man sits in despair at his computer with his hands either side of his head, staring into the screen with a pained and anguished look on his face, in a home office setting.
Materials Shares

Mineral Resources shares sink on Onslow Iron blow

This miner is having a tough session. Let's find out why.

Read more »

A man sits in a chair hunched over a laptop and covered head to toe in frozen icicles to represent Envirosuite's trading halt
Materials Shares

MAC Copper shares in trading halt as miner flags 'potential control transaction'

MAC Copper shares are frozen while Sandfire Resources shares are the fastest risers of the ASX 200 today.

Read more »

A young man pointing up looking amazed, indicating a surging share price movement for an ASX company
Materials Shares

Bell Potter says this ASX lithium stock could rise ~50%

The broker has just put a buy rating on this lithium stock.

Read more »

A woman stands next to a large green battery smiling and eating an apple with a lifting green arrow line in the background, indicating rising stock prices.
Share Market News

Are Liontown Resources shares a buy, hold or sell according to Macquarie?

Here’s what the broker has to say about this Lithium miner. 

Read more »

A man wearing a shirt, tie and hard hat sits in an office and marks dates in his diary.
Materials Shares

Rio Tinto share price tumbles on CEO bombshell news

The mining giant is now looking for a new leader.

Read more »

a mine worker holds his phone in one hand and a tablet in the other as he stands in front of heavy machinery at a mine site.
Materials Shares

What's going on with the Fortescue share price today?

This mining giant is making changes to its leadership.

Read more »

Happy construction worker at a building site with a group of workers at the background.
Materials Shares

After its result, does Macquarie rate James Hardie shares a buy, hold or sell?

The company announced its FY25 earnings on Wednesday.

Read more »

Miner and company person analysing results of a mining company.
Materials Shares

Fortescue shares fall on Iron Bridge blow

Iron Bridge is taking longer to ramp up than planned.

Read more »