Much has been made of the incredible gains we have seen in recent months with the gold price.
Amid the extreme volatility we have seen in global share markets since the 'liberation day' tariff announcements over in the United States, gold has arguably been a beacon of stability.
As we covered yesterday, the price of gold has climbed more than 24% since the start of January. That looks pretty appealing against an ASX share market that plunged by almost 15% between February's highs and April's lows.
Today, the precious metal is sitting very close to its latest all-time highs, asking around US$3,220 an ounce. That's after hitting US$3,245 an ounce just yesterday.
Gold is the traditional safe haven asset. Investors have always flocked to its physical appeal in times of geopolitical strife or economic uncertainty. 2025 has delivered a healthy serving of both thus far. Wars continue to rage in the Middle East and in Eastern Europe. And President Donald Trump's tariff plans have injected a level of uncertainty into the global economy not seen since the early days of the global pandemic.
So it's not surprising to see gold thrive while share markets whipsaw.
This has been a boon to anyone who owns physical gold bullion, as well as gold exchange-traded funds or precious metal miners.
The good news for these gold investors is that some experts reckon gold can climb much further from here.
Expert: Gold price could hit US$4,500 an ounce by 2026
As reported in the Australian Financial Review (AFR) this week, analysts at investment bank Goldman Sachs beleive gold could rise as high as US$4,500 an ounce by the start of next year.
To be clear, that US$4,500 price is an 'extreme scenario' price with a "very low probability", according to Goldman analyst Lina Thomas. Thomas says that gold would only climb this high if "central banks up their gold purchases to 110 tonnes a month, ETF holdings return to pandemic levels and speculative trader positioning hits the top of its historical range".
Even so, Thomas says it is "plausible". The analyst instead reckons a more likely end-of-year price for gold is US$3,700 an ounce. That would still mean a further upside of almost 15% if realised.
Charlie Aitken, an investment director at Regal Partners, agrees. In the same article, Aitken is quoted as stating:
I am personally of the view that gold and gold equities are entering a structural bull market… Multiple market sources cite that Beijing is actively selling down its holdings of US Treasuries and buying gold. This, in turn, is weakening the US dollar.
So it seems gold's appeal will continue to endure in 2025, if these experts are correct. Let's see what happens.
