The CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) share price is down 15% since the start of 2025 and 20% in the last six months, as the chart below shows. After a sizeable decline, interested investors may be wondering whether this ASX healthcare share is an opportunity.
To answer that question, we're going to look at what the broker UBS thinks of the large ASX biotech share.
Aside from the overall market volatility, investors appear to be worried about what changes to the healthcare sector may occur in the US under the new Trump administration.
Let's get into the analysis.
UBS view on CSL shares
The broker said that drugs, blood products and vaccines are exempt from US reciprocal tariffs so far, but President Trump has made it clear he intends to announce something for the pharmaceutical industry.
UBS said it thinks there is "awareness that complex processes cannot be moved overnight and that blunt solutions could drive up drug prices and/or endanger supply."
The broker said it would not be surprised to see incentives for moving production over the coming years, if not immediately. But, UBS noted that money spent on bricks and mortar cannot then be spent on research and development. UBS pointed out that Novartis has already made public plans to increase its US footprint over the next five years.
The broker noted that its base case for CSL shares is that, for now, vaccines are not a problem for CSL. A large portion of CSL's US flu vaccines are made in the US.
UBS also said that for the Behring division, it has some "production flex and pricing headroom as possible offsets". The broker noted plasma products for the US start with US donors. Some production steps are done elsewhere and then the processed goods are shipped back, but other production is contained within the US (like albumin). Some products must go overseas, according to UBS. The broker said it does "not yet know how much of a problem this could be".
On Vifor, UBS noted that the division is based in Switzerland, with IV iron products manufactured in bulk in Switzerland and fill-finished in the US. The broker also suggested CSL appears to be making use of group tax structuring in Switzerland – 13% of group revenue is booked there and the effective tax rate seems to be 4%.
Rating on the ASX healthcare share
The broker currently has a buy rating on CSL shares with a price target of A$310 on the business. That suggests a possible rise of 30% from where it is today.
UBS predicts that in FY25, CSL could generate revenue of US$15.7 billion and net profit after tax (NPAT) of US$3.07 billion. For FY26, the broker forecasts CSL could make US$16.5 billion of revenue and US$3.5 billion of net profit.
Time will tell how close UBS is with its predictions.
