Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL) shares have held up remarkably well during the wider Trump tariff fuelled market tantrum.
In early afternoon trade on Wednesday, shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) supermarket giant are changing hands for $20.64 apiece, down 0.8%.
This sees Coles shares up 3.9% since market close on 2 April, while the ASX 200 is down 6.3% over this same period.
That date's important, because on 3 April Aussie investors awoke to news that US President Donald Trump had imposed sweeping tariffs of at least 10% on some 60 nations.
Coles stock has weathered the resulting storm far better than most in part due to its defensive nature. Much of the company's revenue stems from selling consumer staples, items that by definition people need to buy in both good times as well as in more uncertain times.
Investor sentiment for Coles also lifted after the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) report into alleged price gauging and a potential breakup of Coles and rival Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW) came in much softer than many investors had feared.
With Coles shares outperforming in the current downturn, is now a good time to buy the stock?
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Should I buy Coles shares now?
Despite the upward trend in Coles shares, MPC Markets' Jonathan Tacadena isn't ready to pull the trigger just yet (courtesy of The Bull).
"The Federal Government has pledged to make price gouging illegal at supermarkets if Labor is returned at the election on May 3," said Tacadena, who has a hold recommendation on Coles.
Tacadena added:
However, after a lengthy supermarkets' inquiry, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission didn't accuse Coles or rival Woolworths of price gouging. The Coles chart looks solid with an upward trend, but sector noise remains a risk.
As for the short-term outlook for further share price growth, he said:
Many analysts have price targets around current levels, which show limited upside in the short term. Total group sales revenue of $23.035 billion in the first half of fiscal year 2025 was up 3.7% on the prior corresponding period.
The buy case for the ASX 200 supermarket
In late March, before the release of the ACCC Supermarkets Inquiry final report, Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) came out with a bullish assessment of Coles shares with an outperform rating and $22.00 price target. That more than 6% above current levels.
"We expect FY26 to be a particularly strong year for the group, with earnings having been the key driver of recent performance," the broker said.
Over the past 12 months, Coles shares have gained 27.6%, racing ahead of the 4.9% one-year losses posted by the ASX 200.
Over the full year, Coles also paid out 69 cents a share in dividends. At the current share price, Coles stock trades on a fully franked trailing dividend yield of 3.3%.
