ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) shares are not joining in with the broader market rebound today.
Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) bank stock closed down 4.8% at $26.83 on Monday. After opening in the green early on Tuesday, shares are currently changing hands for $26.78 apiece, down 0.2%.
For some context, the ASX 200 is up 0.7% at this same time.
With today's intraday dip factored in, ANZ shares are down 11% over the past six-months.
Does that present a buying opportunity, a wait-and-see moment, or should investors sell the ASX 200 bank stock today?
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Should I buy the dip on ANZ shares?
Casting our net wide, consensus analyst recommendations on CommSec have ANZ shares as a hold. CommSec lists one analyst with a strong buy, two with a moderate buy, eight with a hold, and two with a strong sell recommendation.
Stepping away from CommSec and turning to The Bull, Sanlam Private Wealth's Remo Greco counts among the bears (courtesy of The Bull).
"The bank's upgrade profits cycle has most likely ended," said Greco, who has a sell recommendation on ANZ shares.
Greco noted:
Lower interest rates make profitability marginally weaker. ANZ statutory profit after tax of $6.535 billion in full year 2024 was down 8% on the prior corresponding period. Revenue of $20.809 billion was down 2%.
Greco is also concerned that ANZ's increasing costs could further erode the ASX 200 bank's bottom line.
According to Greco:
We also note that long term funding costs are rising. In the first quarter of fiscal year 2025, gross impaired assets rose $200 million to $1.9 billion, mostly driven by Australian mortgage restructures.
MPC Markets' Jonathan Tacadena has a more moderate outlook on the big four bank, (courtesy of The Bull).
"The bank has invested $1.5 billion on its new technology platform, ANZ Plus," said Tacadena, who has a hold recommendation on ANZ shares.
Tacadena added:
While this should lower long term costs and improve flexibility, some analysts are focusing on short term execution risks. The share price has held up better than other banks in the recent sell-off, but remains stuck in a sideways trading range.
With net interest margins edging lower, Tacadena isn't ready to pull the trigger on ANZ stock just yet.
He said:
Rising bond yields and margin pressures continue to weigh on the sector. We recommend holding ANZ for now, with limited upside until clearer progress is made on its technology rollout.
The bull case
While ANZ shares could fall further from current levels over the medium term, the ASX 200 bank stock does look to be trading at an attractive long-term price in terms of its passive income potential.
Over the past 12 months, the bank has paid out $1.66 a share in partly franked dividends.
At today's share price, that equates to a trailing dividend yield of 6.2%.
