Australia's iron ore export earnings to slide, Government report warns

The future may no be so bright for Australia's iron ore miners.

| More on:
Female miner standing next to a haul truck in a large mining operation.

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Can it get any worse for Australia's ASX-listed iron ore players?

Of course it can.

Australia's Department of Industry, Science, and Resources has gazed into the future, and the outlook is grim for much of the resources sector.

And with mining contributing more than 12% of Australia's economic output, that does not sound great for a country so heavily reliant on it.

The latest Resources and Energy Quarterly report forecasts Australia's resource and energy exports to drop to $387 billion in FY25 from $415 billion the previous financial year.

That represents a slide of about 6.7%, a trend expected to continue.

The report predicts earnings will likely continue to sink over the next five years before steadying at $343 billion towards the end of that period.

As such, Australia's resource and energy exports could see a 17% decline in value over the next five years.

And iron ore, Australia's largest export, contributes about a quarter of the country's resource and energy exports.

Australia's iron ore miners, led by Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO), BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP), and Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG), have enjoyed solid growth over the past 20 years.

Australia's iron ore production, mainly centred around Western Australia's Pilbara region, has more than tripled since 2004 when the country's miners produced about 200 million tonnes.

Australia is still the biggest iron ore producer in the world, exporting 902 million tonnes of iron ore in 2024.

China remains by far the world's biggest importer, consuming about 72% of the world's supply in 2023, followed by Japan's 6%, with South Korea importing 4%.

One way to go?

But things are changing.

The report stated that Australia's iron ore miners are "running fast to stand still".

It warned that sustaining production volumes at the current high levels would require "ongoing investment in exploration to address declining volumes and ore quality, as well as investment to develop new deposits and build tie-in infrastructure".

A rock and a hard place

The report also noted that lower forecast prices could reduce Australia's iron ore export earnings in real terms from around $117 billion in FY25 to about $109 billion in FY26.

Further declines could see export earnings drop to $81 billion in FY30, representing a decline of more than 30% from the FY25 figure.

But it's not all doom and gloom.

Spot iron ore prices have been relatively stable so far this year after plunging for most of 2024.

The price of iron ore is currently hovering around $104 per tonne, having fallen to $91 per tonne in 2024.  

World steel production is also projected to rise to about 2 billion tonnes by the end of 2030.

And while declining output in China will have an impact on Australia's iron miners' operations, that decline is expected to be offset by new capacity in India, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East.

Motley Fool contributor Steve Holland has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Resources Shares

Image from either construction, mining or the oil industry of a friendly worker.
Resources Shares

Why did the Mineral Resources share price rip 15% higher today?

The iron ore and lithium giant was the fastest riser of the ASX 200 on Thursday.

Read more »

A man wearing a hard hat and high visibility vest looks out over a vast plain where heavy mining equipment can be seen in the background.
Resources Shares

2030 forecast: As Australia's iron ore export earnings decline, copper will rise. What does this mean for BHP shares?

BHP is expanding its iron ore and copper production.

Read more »

An engineer takes a break on a staircase and looks out over a huge open pit coal mine as the sun rises in the background.
Resources Shares

4 reasons to buy BHP shares today

A leading expert outlines four key reasons BHP shares are a buy.

Read more »

Businessman walks through exit door signalling resignation
Resources Shares

Pilbara Minerals share price drops as CFO announces resignation

It’s been a challenging few years for outgoing Pilbara Minerals CFO Luke Bortoli.

Read more »

Miner looking at a tablet.
Resources Shares

What happened with the BHP share price in May?

Did you buy BHP shares in May? Here’s how much the ASX 200 miner returned.

Read more »

Two men in hard hats and high visibility jackets look together at a laptop screen at a mine site.
Resources Shares

Should I buy Fortescue shares today?

A leading investing expert offers his verdict on the outlook for Fortescue shares.

Read more »

A female miner wearing a high vis vest and hard hard smiles and holds a clipboard while inspecting a mine site with a colleague.
Resources Shares

Is this a good time to buy BHP shares?

Should investors jump on the ASX mining shares right now?

Read more »

a miner holds his thumb up as he holds a device in his other hand.
Broker Notes

Why Macquarie expects this ASX 200 copper stock to surge 36% in a year

Macquarie forecasts some hefty gains ahead for the ASX 200 copper miner. But why?

Read more »