Why BHP and this ASX dividend stock could rise 20%+

It isn't just growth shares that could deliver big returns. Analysts think these income stocks could too.

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There are a lot of ASX dividend stocks for investors to choose from on the Australian share market.

One of the most popular out there is BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP), but would it be a good option for income investors right now?

Let's see what analysts are saying about the mining giant and another stock. Here's what you need to know:

BHP Group

Mining behemoth BHP could be an ASX dividend stock to buy according to analysts at Goldman Sachs.

This is largely due to its exposure to in-demand metal, copper. The broker believes copper is going to become very important to BHP's earnings in the coming years as it looks to grow its production to take advantage of supply side challenges. Commenting on the company, the broker said:

We remain bullish on copper due to ongoing supply side challenges and increasing demand, and expect BHP's copper EBITDA to increase by ~US$5bn to ~US$13bn by FY26 (~45% of group EBITDA). Under our base case, copper EBITDA is expected to reach ~US$17bn by FY35, at GSe long run copper of ~US$4.6/lb (real $, from 2028).

Goldman expects this to underpin dividends per share of 102 US cents in FY 2025 and then 112 US cents in FY 2026. Based on the current BHP share price of $38.20, this equates to fully franked dividend yields of 4.25% and 4.7%, respectively.

Goldman also sees significant upside for its shares with its buy rating and $47.30 price target. This suggests that they could rise almost 24% over the next 12 months.

Accent Group Ltd (ASX: AX1)

Another ASX dividend stock that could be a buy according to analysts is Accent Group.

It is the footwear retailer behind store brands such as HypeDC, Platypus, The Athlete's Foot, Style Runner, and Sneaker Lab. It also has a growing exposure to the youth fashion market with Glue Store and Nude Lucy.

Bell Potter thinks it would be a great option for income investors at current levels. So much so, it has named the company as a key pick. It said:

We continue to view AX1 as a key pick in our retail sector coverage given their scale as Australia's market leader, growth adjacencies in both footwear/apparel from exclusive partnerships & TAF channel conversion, and growing vertical brand strategy led by Nude Lucy.

As for income, the broker is forecasting fully franked dividends of 13.7 cents per share in FY 2025 and then 15.6 cents per share in FY 2026. Based on its latest share price of $1.80, this equates to dividend yields of 7.6% and 8.6%, respectively.

Bell Potter has a buy rating and $2.75 price target on Accent's shares, which implies potential upside of 53% for investors from current levels.

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Accent Group. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Goldman Sachs Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Accent Group and BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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