BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares have weathered the past month's market sell-off relatively well.
In morning trade today, shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) mining giant are down 0.5% at $39.37 each.
This sees BHP shares down 3.8% since 14 February, when the market began to veer towards a correction.
By comparison, the ASX 200 has dropped 7.8% over this time.
Taking a step back, BHP stock is down 7% since this time last year, trailing the 3% gains posted by the benchmark index over the year. Though that's not including the $1.895 a share in fully franked dividends BHP paid out over the 12 months.
The big Aussie miner has faced some headwinds from costs inflation, a lacklustre iron ore price and forecasts of further drops in the iron ore price to come, while its increasing exposure to copper has helped support the stock.
The miner also has significant exposure to coking and thermal coal, potash, and uranium.
With this picture in mind, should I buy BHP shares today?
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Should I invest in BHP shares?
"The global mining giant is focusing more on increasing copper production," Catapult Wealth's Dylan Evans said in analysing BHP shares (courtesy of The Bull).
"Based on its most recent first half result in fiscal year 2025, copper now makes up 38% of BHP's earnings, with iron ore down to just 55%. This appears to be a smart long-term strategy," he added.
In H1 FY 2025, BHP reported a 10% year-on-year increase in copper production to 987,000 tonnes. Underlying earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) from its copper unit increased by 44% to US$5.0 billion.
As for iron ore, BHP reported a 1% year-on-year increase in production for the half year to 131 million tonnes. But underlying EBITDA from BHP's iron ore unit dropped 26% from H1 FY 2024 to US$7.2 billion.
And future iron ore earnings could continue to erode, Evans cautioned.
"Iron ore prices have been resilient, but we do expect a decline in the long term, as steel demand from China matures. Copper appears to have a more buoyant future, driven by widespread use in electronics," he said.
Adding it all up, Evans has a hold recommendation for BHP shares at the moment.
He noted:
A declining iron ore division may limit growth in the short term, but it provides the cash for BHP to continue expanding into copper, setting the company up for a brighter future.
Goldman Sachs sees 20% upside
Goldman Sachs has a more bullish take on BHP shares.
Following the ASX 200 miner's half-year results, the broker maintained its buy rating with an improved price target of $47.40 a share.
That represents a potential upside of 20.4% from current levels.
