Why BHP and this ASX dividend share are buys

Analysts think these shares could be top picks for income investors right now.

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Analysts have been busy running the rule over a number of ASX dividend shares recently.

Two that have received the thumbs up are listed below. Let's see why these could be top buys for income investors according to analysts:

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP)

Mining behemoth BHP could be an ASX dividend share to buy according to analysts at Goldman Sachs.

The broker likes the miner due to its exposure to copper. It expects the company's earnings to be given a big boost in the coming years from the base metal. Goldman said:

We remain bullish on copper due to ongoing supply side challenges and increasing demand, and expect BHP's copper EBITDA to increase by ~US$5bn to ~US$13bn by FY26 (~45% of group EBITDA). Under our base case, copper EBITDA is expected to reach ~US$17bn by FY35, at GSe long run copper of ~US$4.6/lb (real $, from 2028).

This is expected to underpin dividends per share of 102 US cents in FY 2025 and then 112 US cents in FY 2026. Based on the current BHP share price of $38.24, this equates to fully franked dividend yields of 4.2% and 4.7%, respectively.

Goldman has a buy rating and $47.30 price target. This implies potential upside of 24% for investors from current levels.

Accent Group Ltd (ASX: AX1)

Over at Bell Potter, its analysts think that Accent Group could be an ASX dividend share to buy this month.

It is a footwear focused retailer with a large portfolio of store brands. This includes HypeDC, Platypus, The Athlete's Foot, Style Runner, and Sneaker Lab. It also has a growing exposure to the youth fashion market with Glue Store and Nude Lucy.

The broker likes Accent Group due to its market leadership position and expansion potential. It said:

We continue to view AX1 as a key pick in our retail sector coverage given their scale as Australia's market leader, growth adjacencies in both footwear/apparel from exclusive partnerships & TAF channel conversion, and growing vertical brand strategy led by Nude Lucy.

In respect to dividends, Bell Potter is forecasting fully franked payouts of 13.7 cents per share in FY 2025 and then 15.6 cents per share in FY 2026. Based on its latest share price of $1.77, this equates to dividend yields of 7.7% and 8.8%, respectively.

The broker has a buy rating and $2.75 price target on Accent's shares. This suggests that upside of 50%+ is possible over the next 12 months.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Accent Group. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Goldman Sachs Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Accent Group and BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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