Thinking of buying the dip on Fortescue shares and bagging the dividend? Better hurry…

Fortescue's ex-dividend date is approaching….

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Investors sold off Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) shares last week after the miner released its 1H FY25 results.

The ASX 200 mining stock fell 6.06% on Thursday as investors digested the half-year report, then rebounded 2.25% on Friday to close the week at $18.65 per share.

This represents a 4.46% decline over the past week.

Is this an opportunity to buy the dip and bag the dividend at the same time?

Fortescue's interim dividend

Fortescue has been one of the market's biggest dividend payers in recent years.

But the miner is facing many headwinds now, including falling commodity prices, economic weakness in China which is impacting demand for iron ore, and rising costs due to inflation.

So, unfortunately, Fortescue has slashed its interim dividend this year.

Fortescue announced an interim dividend of 50 cents per share fully franked last week.

That's less than half the 1H FY24 dividend of $1.08 per share. Ouch.

The miner's dividend policy is to pay out 50% to 80% of its full-year underlying net profit after tax (NPAT). The interim dividend represents 65% of the half-year NPAT.

Based on Fortescue's closing share price of $18.65 on Friday, the interim dividend represents a dividend yield of 2.7% fully franked.

If you'd like to bag the dividend this time around, the window of opportunity is closing.

Want the next dividend on Fortescue shares?

Fortescue shares go ex-dividend on Wednesday.

That means you need to buy Fortescue shares today or tomorrow to become entitled to the interim dividend.

Dividend payment day is 27 March.

Investors who prefer to use their dividend to automatically buy more shares through the dividend reinvestment plan (DRP) must submit their DRP elections by 5pm AEST on Friday.

Now, let's review the company's half-year results.

Fortescue reveals profit plunge

Fortescue reported record half-year iron ore shipments of 97.1 million tonnes (Mt), up 3% year over year.

However, higher costs and lower commodity prices saw Fortescue's NPAT dive 53% to US$1.6 billion.

Revenue fell 20% year over year to US$7.6 billion.

Underlying earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) came in at US$3.6 billion, down 38% year over year.

The underlying EBITDA margin fell from 62% in 1H FY24 to 48% in 1H FY25.

Fortescue had a cash balance of US$3.4 billion and gross debt of US$5.4 billion at the end of the half. That makes its net debt US$2 billion, up from $500 million on 30 June 2024.

Looking ahead, Fortescue expects 190Mt to 200Mt of iron ore shipments for full-year FY25.

Should you buy the dip on Fortescue shares?

As mentioned earlier, the Fortescue share price has fallen 4.46% over the past week.

Does this present a buy-the-dip opportunity?

Top broker Goldman Sachs doesn't think so.

After reviewing the 1H FY25 results, Goldman has maintained its sell rating on Fortescue shares. The broker has also reduced its 12-month price target by 1% to $16.20.

One of the reasons for the sell rating is that Goldman reckons Fortescue shares are trading at a premium to BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) and Rio Tinto Limited (ASX: RIO).

Goldman estimates that Fortescue shares are trading at about 1.1x net asset value (NAV) compared to BHP at 0.8x NAV and Rio at 0.75x.


Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has positions in BHP Group. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Goldman Sachs Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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