Are BHP and these ASX 200 dividend shares buys?

There are a large number of ASX 200 dividend shares to choose from on the Australian share market.

To narrow things down for income investors, I have picked out three blue chips that analysts are tipping as buys.

Here's what you need to know about them:

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP)

The team at Goldman Sachs thinks BHP could be an ASX 200 dividend share to buy now.

It likes the mining giant due largely to its exposure to copper. Its analysts said that they "remain bullish on copper due to ongoing supply side challenges and increasing demand and expect BHP's copper EBITDA to increase by ~US$5bn to ~US$12bn by FY26E (~45% of group EBITDA)."

Goldman believes that this will underpin fully franked dividends per share of 102 US cents per share in FY 2025 and then 113 US cents per share in FY 2026. Based on the latest exchange rates and its current share price of $40.15, this equates to dividend yields of 4% and 4.4%, respectively.

Goldman has a buy rating and $47.40 price target on its shares.

Challenger Ltd (ASX: CGF)

Bell Potter thinks that annuities company Challenger could be an ASX 200 dividend share to buy.

The broker believes that weakness following its half year results release has created a buying opportunity for investors. It feels that "the share price reaction (down 9% or $350m off market cap) seems out of place and does not reflect the underlying/operating performance of the business, in terms of growth in new business, controlling costs or asset returns."

As for income, it is forecasting fully franked dividends of 28.7 cents per share in FY 2025 and then 31 cents per share in FY 2026. Based on Challenger's current share price of $5.47, this would equate to attractive yields of 5.2% and 5.7%, respectively.

Bell Potter has a buy rating and $7.80 price target on its shares.

Origin Energy Ltd (ASX: ORG)

A third ASX 200 dividend share that could be a buy according to analysts is Origin Energy. It is a leading provider of electricity, gas, LPG, solar and internet to homes and businesses across Australia.

UBS remains positive on the company despite a slightly softer than expected performance during the first half of FY 2025.

As for dividends, the broker is now forecasting dividends per share of 56 cents in FY 2025 and then 55 cents in FY 2026. Based on its current share price of $10.55, this equates to dividend yields 5.3% and 5.2%, respectively.

UBS has a buy rating and $11.90 price target on its shares.