These top ASX dividend shares could rise 15% to 30%

Analysts expect big things from these dividend payers this year.

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It isn't just growth shares that have the potential to offer big returns for investors.

There are ASX dividend shares out there that are being tipped to deliver the winning combination of major upside and attractive dividend yields.

Here are three dividend shares that analysts believe could do the above:

GQG Partners Inc (ASX: GQG)

Goldman Sachs believes that GQG Partners is an ASX dividend share with the potential to deliver big returns.

It is global investment company managing US$160.4 billion on behalf of investors that include many large pension funds, sovereign funds, and wealth management firms from around the world.

Goldman has a buy rating and $3.00 price target on its shares. Based on its current share price, this implies potential upside of almost 30% for investors over the next 12 months.

As for income, the broker is forecasting dividends per share of 13 US cents (20.7 Australian cents) in FY 2024 and then 14 US cents (22.3 Australian cents) in FY 2025. This equates to large dividend yields of 8.8% and 9.5%, respectively.

Stockland Corporation Ltd (ASX: SGP)

The team at Morgan Stanley thinks that Stockland could be an ASX dividend share to buy.

It is one of Australia's largest diversified property companies. Stockland has a specialty in residential communities, land lease communities, town centres, logistics, and office real estate.

Morgan Stanley recently named Stockland as its preferred exposure to the residential market. It has an overweight rating and $6.35 price target on its shares. Based on its current share price of $5.15, this suggests that upside of 23% is possible for investors.

As well as plenty of upside, some good dividend yields are expected. The broker is forecasting dividends per share of 25.4 cents in FY 2025 and then 29.1 cents in FY 2026. This represents dividend yields of 4.9% and 5.65%, respectively.

Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS)

A final ASX dividend share to buy according to Goldman Sachs is Telstra.

It is Australia's leading telco with 22.5 million retail mobile services and 3.4 million retail bundle and data services.

Goldman likes the company due to its defensive qualities and positive growth outlook. It notes that it is "confident in its ability to deliver Mobile/InfraCo growth, ongoing cost efficiencies, and strong shareholder returns benefiting from portfolio mgmnt/mid-single digit DPS growth."

The broker has a buy rating and $4.50 price target on Telstra's shares. Based on its current share price of $3.91, this implies potential upside of 15% for investors.

In respect to dividends, Goldman is forecasting fully franked payouts of 19 cents per share in FY 2025 and then 20 cents per share in FY 2026. This represents dividend yields of 4.9% and 5.1%, respectively.

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Goldman Sachs Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Telstra Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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