The Qantas Airways Ltd (ASX: QAN) share price fell 2.9% to an intraday low of $9.23 today.
The ASX 200 airline stock has since rebounded to be trading at $9.34, down 1.8% for the day.
Let's find out why Qantas shares are in the red.
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Qantas share price dips following broker downgrade
One possible factor driving the Qantas share price lower is a downgrade from top broker, Macquarie.
According to The Australian, Macquarie has lowered its rating on Qantas to neutral.
However, the broker has increased its 12-month share price target by 11% to $9.30.
Analyst Ian Myles said Qantas faces more competition on international routes from Qatar and Virgin, as well as Delta Air Lines Inc (NYSE: DAL) in the US, amid a weak Australian dollar.
He notes that Qantas's EV/EBITDA has returned to previous highs, and says:
Reports of falling domestic prices, competitive capacity on larger routes like US and Europe (are) clouding the FY26 outlook.
EV/EBITDA multiple is now at a 10-year peak (ex COVID) which captures the structural changes to the cost base.
He comments that Qantas aircraft is three to four years older, and this is reflected in the company's share price discount to international competitors.
Alliance Aviation disappoints the market
The Qantas share price may also be falling after fly in, fly out (FIFO) company Alliance Aviation Services Ltd (ASX: AQZ) reported its 1H FY25 results after the market close yesterday.
Qantas is a minority shareholder in Alliance, which provides contract, charter, and allied aviation services.
Investors were apparently unhappy with the report, with the Alliance Aviation Services share price falling 10.5% to a 52-week low of $2.48 today.
The stock has recovered slightly to be trading at $2.51, down 9.39%, at the time of writing.
Alliance reported total revenue from operations of $333 million, up 11.3%, and EBITDA of
$101.2 million, up 25.9%.
Flight hours increased to 58,362, up from 50,793 in the prior corresponding period. About 97% of those hours were under long-term contracts.
Alliance's Managing Director, Scott McMillan, said the company had delivered a "solid performance" despite rising costs and increased industrial relations activity.
He also noted that three aircraft were damaged during the period in incidents "beyond the company's control".
What's next?
Qantas will report its 1H FY25 numbers and announce its interim dividend on 27 February.
Macquarie expects a 21% increase in first-half profit for Qantas.
The broker says the FY25 outlook is strong given optimal load factors, lower oil prices, and the benefits of the share buyback.
The Qantas share price hit an all-time high of $9.64 on 6 February.
