Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT) shares had a tough time on Thursday.
The ASX 200 energy stock ended the session 5% lower at $1.44.
This followed the release of the energy producer's half year results which fell a touch short of expectations.
While this is disappointing, the team at Bell Potter believes that it could have created an attractive buying opportunity.
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Broker tips ASX 200 energy stock as a buy
According to a note out of the broker, it was relatively pleased with the company's performance during the half and described it as "strong". It said:
BPT reported 1H FY25 underlying EBITDA of $587m (BP est. $619m), NPAT of $237m (BP est. $242m) and declared a fully franked 3cps interim dividend (BP est. 3cps). Guidance for FY25 production was narrowed to 18.5-20.5MMboe (previously 17.5-21.5MMboe) and capex maintained at $700-800m. Waitsia Stage 2 remains on track for first gas sales in the June 2025 quarter.
We view this as a strong result, boosted by LNG swap cargos contributing $139m to total 1H FY25 revenue of $990m. 1H FY25 field operating costs were $12.5/boe (FY24 $15.5/boe), already below the FY25 target of $14/boe. BPT's balance sheet remains strong with net debt of $387m and net gearing at 10%.
Big returns potential
Bell Potter believes that market-beating returns could be on the cards for buyers of the ASX 200 energy stock over the next 12 months.
The note reveals that it has retained its buy rating on Beach Energy's shares with an improved price target of $1.70. Based on its current share price of $1.44, this implies potential upside of 18% for investors.
In addition, the broker is forecasting an 8 cents per share fully franked dividend in FY 2025 (growing to 9 cents per share in FY 2026).
This would mean fully franked dividend yields of 5.5% and 6.3%, respectively, and boosts the total potential 12-month return to over 23%.
Commenting on its buy rating, the broker said:
Waitsia Stage 2 is expected to ramp-up from mid-2025 and the new Otway well connections should offset Western Flank decline. Capex is now trending lower and production growth will see earnings and free cash flow lift from FY26, as demonstrated by recent LNG swap cargos. BPT's near-term production growth is a key differentiator when compared with domestic peers. We have a positive view on Australian east coast gas and LNG markets.
