Despite the uncertainty, some S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) shares may be able to deliver pleasing profit growth and shareholder returns over the next four years.
Typically, share prices tend to follow the direction of profit over the long term. Businesses can't control share market volatility, but they can do their best to increase their companies' underlying value.
With Donald Trump as US President, the next four years could bring many surprises, and a few ASX 200 shares could benefit.
Below are two ASX 200 shares I expect to earn higher profits in four years than today, which may bode well for their share prices.
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De Grey Mining Limited (ASX: DEG)
Impressively, the gold price rose to US$2,820 per ounce in February, which was a new record high, according to Trading Economics.
As a gold miner, this is a helpful dynamic for De Grey Mining (and other gold miners).
Fund manager L1 recently explained why gold is having such a strong run:
We believe the strong performance in gold has mostly been driven by increased central bank activity, spurred by growing geopolitical tensions, in addition to providing an attractive hedge to growing U.S. sovereign debt and inflation. While gold ETF flows from Western markets have steadily declined since 2020, Asian demand, most notably in China, has accelerated as a result of loosening monetary policy and limited alternative investment opportunities amongst a struggling domestic economy.
De Grey owns the Hemi gold project in Western Australia, which is one of the largest undeveloped gold projects, according to L1.
L1 thinks Hemi is a tier-1 project that can produce more than 500,000 ounces of gold per year in a friendly jurisdiction. According to L1, the project is expected to have low costs and produce a post-tax internal rate of return (IRR) of 36% (at a gold price that was around 35% below the gold price of January 2025).
The fund manager suggested the ASX 200 share could generate an operating profit (EBITDA) of more than A$1.5 billion with the January 2025 gold price (which was lower than today's prices).
Excitingly, L1 believes there is potential to reach annual production of at least 850,000 ounces by developing regional deposits already identified and utilising underground mining alongside the currently planned open pit.
There's a lot to be excited about in the next few years, particularly if the gold price stays at this level (or rises further).
BlueScope Steel Limited (ASX: BSL)
BlueScope is a major steel producer in Australia and the US. Aussies may have heard of some of its brands, including Colorbond and Truecore.
I'd suggest an overall recovery of the economies in Australia and the US could be beneficial for the company's demand and earnings.
But, under the new US administration, BlueScope could deliver faster growth, given Trump's desire for the US to use more US-made products.
The ASX 200 share owns North Star, a steelmaking mill in Ohio, US, that produces approximately 3 million tonnes of steel per year. BlueScope says North Star is one of the most efficient and sustainable steel mills in the US.
While tariffs could be detrimental to the global economy, if the cost of steel from some countries increases, BlueScope's production could seem more appealing to US customers.
According to the forecast on Commsec, the BlueScope share price is valued at less than 9x FY27's estimated earnings. That's a compelling valuation, in my view.
