Which will deliver better dividends in 2025: ASX mining shares or bank stocks?

Banks and miners have long been among the most favoured ASX stocks for income investors.

Excited woman holding out $100 notes, symbolising dividends.

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Mining shares and bank stocks are usually among the most generous dividend payers of the ASX 200.

But how will a volatile iron ore price and lower demand from China impact the major miners' dividends?

And can the banks' dividend yields remain high after massive share price growth last year?

In this article, we look at the forecast 2025 dividends from the large-cap ASX 200 mining and bank shares.

These predictions reflect consensus expectations among analysts on the CommSec trading platform.

2025 dividend predictions for ASX 200 mining shares

Here are the consensus forecasts for 2025 dividends as published on CommSec today.

ASX 200 large-cap mining shareForecast 2025 dividendDividend yield
Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG)$1.1285.88%
Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) $4.4053.74%
BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) $1.7264.32%
South32 Ltd (ASX: S32) 5.6 cents3.37%
Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) 47.5 cents1.66%
Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN)11.2 cents1.95%
Source: CommSec. Dividend yields calculated by the author based on share prices at the time of writing

What do the experts say?

The iron ore price has been slightly stronger in the new year, prompting some experts to speculate that ASX 200 mining shares may pay better dividends than originally expected.

Aaron Binsted, portfolio manager of Lazard's Australian equity income fund, says he is hoping for "better mining dividends" if the iron ore price remains above $US100 per tonne.

The iron ore price closed at US$101.33 per tonne overnight.

2025 dividend predictions for ASX 200 bank shares

Here are the consensus forecasts for 2025 dividends as published on CommSec today.

ASX 200 large-cap bank shareForecast 2025 dividendDividend yield
Commonwealth Bank of Australia 

(ASX: CBA)
$4.953.08%
National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB)$1.724.3%
Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC)$1.554.58%
Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG)$6.502.69%
ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ)$1.705.56%
Source: CommSec. Dividend yields calculated by the author based on share prices at the time of writing

What do the experts say?

ASX 200 bank stocks experienced phenomenal share price growth last year.

A higher share price will typically lead to a lower dividend yield unless an ASX company increases its earnings and raises its dividends.

Darren Thompson, Head of Asset Management at Equity Trustees Asset Management, says this is unlikely for the ASX 200 bank shares this year.

He comments:

Bank earnings are anticipated to be broadly flat due to a combination of modest credit growth, ongoing competition restricting net interest margins, ongoing cost pressures and already cyclically low bad debt provisions.

Jed Richards of Shaw and Partners recently told The Bull that the banks will find it tough enough to sustain their profits, let alone generate growth, in today's difficult economic environment.

Will banks or miners deliver the best dividend yields?

If we look at the tables above, we see more stocks in the banking sector offering dividend yields above the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) annual average of 4% than in the mining sector.

Across these 11 ASX 200 mining and bank stocks, iron ore pure-play Fortescue offers the best dividend yield at 5.88%. However, ANZ shares are not far behind at 5.56%.

So, it's fair to say that ASX bank shares are likely to deliver better dividend yields than mining shares this year.

Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has positions in BHP Group and South32. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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