You'd be hard-pressed to find any stockholders complaining about the performance of Qantas Airways Ltd (ASX: QAN) shares this past year.
One year ago, you could have picked up shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) airline stock for $5.50. In afternoon trade today, those same shares are changing hands for $9.43 apiece.
That sees Qantas shares up a remarkable 71.5% in 12 months.
For some context, the ASX 200 has gained 12.0% over this same period.
Buoyed in part by resurgent domestic and international travel demand and lower jet fuel costs, shares in the Flying Kangaroo closed at new all-time highs of $9.49 on Tuesday, 28 January.
That saw the stock flying well above its pre-pandemic highs of $7.35 a share, achieved in December 2019.
ASX 200 investor sentiment has also lifted with Qantas working to improve its on-time performance and customer service. The airline also settled several outstanding legal actions in 2024 after CEO Vanessa Hudson took the helm in September 2023.
But with Qantas shares currently soaring into uncharted territory, Baker Young's Toby Grimm believes now is a good time for investors to cash in some gains (courtesy of The Bull).
Here's why.
Image source: Getty Images
Is now the time to sell Qantas shares?
"A dearth of domestic competition and resilient passenger demand amid falling fuel costs and relatively modest investment in new aircraft have supported QAN's balance sheet and profitability in recent years," said Grimm, who has a sell recommendation on Qantas shares.
But he believes the winds of fortune are turning in 2025.
According to Grimm:
However, we don't believe these factors will persist over the longer term and view the stock as highly overvalued based on normalised future earnings. The shares have risen from $5.48 on January 25, 2024, to trade at $9.365 on January 23, 2025.
Investors may want to consider cashing in some gains.
What's the latest from the ASX 200 airline stock?
The last price sensitive announcement to directly impact Qantas shares was released on 25 October.
That's when the airline released an operational update ahead of its annual general meeting.
As the Motley Fool's James Mickleboro reported at the time, "The company continues to see first half trading in line with expectations. It notes that both Qantas and Jetstar are seeing stable demand in their respective segments across the portfolio."
And with domestic air travel demand stronger than previously expected, Jetstar's Domestic revenue beat expectations.
With strong domestic demand, Qantas forecast its Domestic revenue per available seat kilometre (RASK) in H1 FY 2025 will be up 3% to 5% from H1 FY 2024. However, management expects its International RASK will decline by 7% to 10% year on year for the six months.
Qantas shares closed up 1.5% on the day.
