When we think about ASX 200 financial shares and dividends, of course, the bank stocks immediately come to mind.
But the financial sector is comprised of many other businesses, including insurers, payment providers, financial services providers, wealth managers, and more.
In recent years, the ASX 200 bank stocks have delivered impressive dividend yields of 5% to 6% or more.
But can they do it again this year after huge share price growth in 2024 and with earnings pressure ahead?
And if they can't, can other ASX 200 financial shares make up the difference through raised dividends?
For example, will the ASX insurance shares pay higher dividends this year after hiking premiums so much?
Insurance companies have demonstrated tremendous pricing power during the cost-of-living crisis, with significantly raised premiums flowing through to higher dividend payments for shareholders last year.
Insurance Australia Group Ltd (ASX: IAG) provides a case in point.
IAG doubled its dividend payment in 2024. Shareholders received 27 cents per share, up from 15 cents per share in 2023. And the consensus expectation among analysts is for another increase this year.
But IAG was also among the top 10 ASX 200 large-caps for share price growth last year, rocketing 49.5%.
A higher share price can reduce the dividend yield, even when the dividend paid is higher.
And given the ASX 200 financial sector was the second-strongest for share price growth in 2024, rising by 28.2%, how will dividend yields look this year?
2025 dividend forecasts for ASX 200 financial shares
Let's take a look at the forecast 2025 dividend yields for ASX 200 financial shares.
For the purposes of this article, we'll focus on large-cap ASX 200 financial shares. These are companies with market capitalisations above $10 billion.
The following chart shows the dividend amounts paid by the large-cap ASX 200 financial shares last year.
Next to that is the consensus analysts' forecast annual dividend amount for 2025, as published on the CommSec trading platform.
We've calculated the forecast 2025 dividend yield based on closing share prices on Thursday.
These ASX 200 financial shares are listed in order of market cap from largest to smallest in the group.
| ASX bank share | 2024 dividend | Forecast 2025 dividend | Yield |
| Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) | $4.65 | $4.95 | 3.1% |
| National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) | $1.69 | $1.72 | 4.4% |
| Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) | $1.66 | $1.55 | 4.7% |
| Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) | $6.40 | $6.50 | 2.7% |
| ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) | $1.66 | $1.70 | 5.6% |
| QBE Insurance Group Ltd (ASX: QBE) | 80 cents | 85 cents | 4.2% |
| Suncorp Group Ltd (ASX: SUN) | 78 cents | 62 cents | 3.1% |
| Insurance Australia Group Ltd (ASX: IAG) | 27 cents | 33 cents | 3.7% |
| Washington H Soul Pattinson & Company Ltd (ASX: SOL) | 95 cents | $1.055 | 3.1% |
| ASX Ltd (ASX: ASX) | $2.08 | $2.19 | 3.4% |
| Medibank Private Ltd (ASX: MPL) | 16.6 cents | 18.5 cents | 4.9% |
| Infratil Ltd (ASX: IFT) | 18.4 cents | 19.4 cents | 1.8% |
As you can see, a major ASX 200 bank stock comes out on top.
ANZ is the large-cap ASX 200 financial share forecast to pay the highest dividend yield this year at 5.6%, followed by Medibank Private shares at 4.9%.
What do the experts say?
As reported in the Australian Financial Review (AFR), Dr Peter Gardner from Plato Asset Management favours general insurers Suncorp and IAG over ASX bank shares right now.
Dr Gardner said:
We think they look quite attractive, and we expect them to continue to increase dividends.
Dr Gardner said the big banks would likely still be able to maintain stable dividend payouts this year.
But in terms of investment, he prefers the insurers to ASX bank stocks for now, noting they are benefitting from high interest rates, a "benign" claims environment, and raised premiums.
He added that Suncorp shares may pay a special dividend if the company decides to use some of the proceeds from the sale of its banking division to ANZ to return capital to shareholders.
