Are you an income investor thinking about buying ASX shares vs. property in the new year?
These numbers are likely to be of interest to you.
In this article, we reveal the forecast 2025 dividend yields of the 10 biggest ASX 200 stocks by market cap, including the Big Four banks.
We also present current gross rental yields for houses and apartments in each of the capital cities and regional markets.
Forecast dividend yields for the top 10 ASX shares
The ASX 200 usually delivers a 4% dividend yield, and that's what happened last year.
An easy way to ensure you receive this 4% (plus franking) income return is to buy an ASX 200-tracking ETF. Examples include BetaShares Australia 200 ETF (ASX: A200) and iShares Core S&P/ASX 200 ETF (ASX: IOZ).
Investors can receive a higher dividend yield if they pick the right individual ASX shares.
Historically, investors have relied on ASX 200 banks and miners for above-market-average dividend yields.
But things may be different in 2025.
New landscape for banks and miners in 2025
The banks had an incredible run of share price growth in 2024.
A higher share price inevitably leads to a lower dividend yield if the banks do not improve their earnings.
As you'll see below, the forecast dividend yields published on CommSec for the Big Four banks are lower than historical levels.
Also, there are potential earnings challenges ahead for the ASX 200 miners and energy producers.
The economic downturn in China is leading to less demand for iron ore and other metals and minerals.
This has led to volatile and generally lower global commodity prices, which impacts company earnings.
Latest government forecasts for resources and energy export earnings reveal an anticipated 10% decline in FY25. Forecast earnings are $372 billion for 2024–25, down from $415 billion in 2023–24.
Arguably, our most important export is iron ore.
Iron ore export volumes increased in 2024 due to improved productivity and ongoing ramp-ups at newer mines. But a lower iron ore price means the government is forecasting lower earnings.
For 2024-25, the government predicts iron ore export earnings of $108 billion, down from $138 billion in 2023–24. The forecast for 2025-26 is worse at $96 billion.
Lower earnings for our producers typically lead to lower dividend payments for investors.
However, softer share prices among the ASX 200 mining stocks mean dividend yields for new investors are still somewhat attractive.
Here are the forecast dividend yields for the top 10 ASX 200 shares.
| 10 largest ASX 200 shares by market cap | Forecast dividend amount | Forecast dividend yield |
| Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) | $4.95 | 3.25% |
| BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) | $1.726 | 4.3% |
| CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) | $3.706 | 1.34% |
| National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) | $1.72 | 4.6% |
| Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) | $1.55 | 4.86% |
| Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) | $6.50 | 2.88% |
| ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) | $1.70 | 5.8% |
| Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES) | $1.98 | 2.79% |
| Goodman Group (ASX: GMG) | 30 cents | 0.81% |
| Fortescue Metals Group Ltd (ASX: FMG) | $1.128 | 5.95% |
Growth in rents is slowing down
According to CoreLogic data, weekly rents rose by 4.8% across Australia in 2024.
This represents a significant slowdown after several years of very strong growth, totalling 30% to 40%.
Rental growth is slowing because affordability is strained, and lower net migration has reduced demand.
We've also seen a reversal in the pandemic trend of people leaving share houses to rent on their own in cheaper areas away from inner city locations.
People did this because they were working from home and no longer needed to rent in expensive markets close to the city and their corporate offices.
With the pandemic over, this trend has now reversed.
People have returned to their offices and are commuting to work again. Also, a lack of affordability is encouraging more friends and families to band together and split the costs of shared accommodation.
Shares vs. property: Gross rental yields across Australia
Here are the current gross rental yields for each property market across Australia.
| Property market | Gross rental yield for houses | Gross rental yield for apartments |
| Sydney | 2.7% | 4% |
| Melbourne | 3.2% | 4.8% |
| Brisbane | 3.4% | 4.5% |
| Adelaide | 3.5% | 4.7% |
| Perth | 4% | 5.5% |
| Hobart | 4.3% | 4.8% |
| Darwin | 6.2% | 7.9% |
| Canberra | 3.8% | 5.1% |
| Regional New South Wales | 4.1% | 4.4% |
| Regional Victoria | 4.2% | 5% |
| Regional Queensland | 4.4% | 4.6% |
| Regional South Australia | 4.6% | 5.1% |
| Regional Western Australia | 5.8% | 7.9% |
| Regional Tasmania | 4.4% | 5.1% |
| Regional Northern Territory | 7.2% | N/A |
