Looking outside the big four? What's in store for the other ASX bank shares in 2025?

Shares in the big four banks went gangbusters in 2024, but what about the others?

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Australia's banking landscape is dominated by the big four, but other ASX bank shares brought strong results for investors last year.

The record highs in 2024 from the big four have been well documented, led by Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA), up 37.1%, and Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC), up 41.1%.

However, the next three largest Australian banks by market capitalisation after the big four also had good years in 2024.

Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG)

Over the past 12 months, Macquarie Bank has grown more than 28.16%, including a fast start in the new year. 

Created with Highcharts 11.4.3Macquarie Group PriceZoom1M3M6MYTD1Y5Y10YALL1 Jan 20248 Jan 2025Zoom ▾Mar '24May '24Jul '24Sep '24Nov '24Jan '25Feb '24Apr '24Jun '24Aug '24Oct '24Dec '24Jan '24Jan '24Jan '24Jul '24Jul '24Jan '25J…Jan '25J…Mar '24Mar '24May '24May '24Sep '24Sep '24Nov '24Nov '24160180200220240260www.fool.com.au

Although Macquarie is not considered one of the big four banks, it is not far behind ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) in terms of market capitalisation. 

  • Macquarie Group market cap: $86.37 billion
  • ANZ Group market cap: $87.96 billion

While this doesn't paint the whole picture, I think it's worth noting before simply categorising banks as the big four with a giant gap before the others. 

Macquarie also differs from the big four banks in its operation. Rather than focusing mostly on retail banking, Macquarie is involved in investment banking, asset management, and commodities trading

Looking to 2025, I believe Macquarie has a chance to continue rewarding investors with strong returns. 

In November, Macquarie released its half-year results, including a 14% year-on-year increase in net profit to $1.61 billion. 

Furthermore, Fairmont Equities' Michael Gable listed it as a top stock for 2025 for outperformance (via The Bull). 

Bendigo and Adelaide Bank Ltd (ASX: BEN)

Another ASX bank share that had a big 2024 was Bendigo and Adelaide Bank. 

Created with Highcharts 11.4.3Bendigo And Adelaide Bank PriceZoom1M3M6MYTD1Y5Y10YALL1 Jan 20248 Jan 2025Zoom ▾Jan '24Mar '24May '24Jul '24Sep '24Nov '24Jan '25Jan '24Jan '24Apr '24Apr '24Jul '24Jul '24Oct '24Oct '24Jan '25J…Jan '25J…www.fool.com.au

The sixth largest bank in Australia by market cap, it has climbed 37.83% over the last year.

Unlike Macquarie Group, Bendigo focuses largely on delivering retail banking services and products to its 2.5 million customers. 

According to an Australian Financial Review report, analysis from global financial services company UBS revealed lending growth could trigger positive earnings revisions for Australian banks in 2025. 

UBS advised that lending growth in the sector rose 0.6 per cent in November, driven by household and business lending in equal measure.

"This remains a source of potential positive EPS revisions for the sector in 2025," UBS analyst John Storey said.

This could be positive news for Bendigo and Adelaide Bank moving forward.

Bank of Queensland Ltd (ASX: BOQ)

Bank of Queensland is Australia's seventh largest bank by market cap. It also enjoyed a strong 2024, rising 10.34% over the last 12 months.  

Created with Highcharts 11.4.3Bank of Queensland PriceZoom1M3M6MYTD1Y5Y10YALL1 Jan 20248 Jan 2025Zoom ▾Jan '24Mar '24May '24Jul '24Sep '24Nov '24Jan '25Jan '24Jan '24Apr '24Apr '24Jul '24Jul '24Oct '24Oct '24Jan '25J…Jan '25J…www.fool.com.au

A 10% rise is nothing to complain about, but this bank experienced much lower returns compared to the ASX banking sector in 2024.

In fact, Bell Potter adviser Christopher Watt listed BOQ shares as a sell in December, saying (courtesy The Bull):

The bank delivered a better-than-expected fiscal year 2024 result, leading to a near term share price lift. Cost reduction initiatives are encouraging.

However, the market's optimism may be short lived given the bank's ambitious revenue growth targets during the next two years and complex strategic transformation.

The shares have risen from $5.92 on July 1 to trade at $6.665 on December 12. Investors may want to consider cashing in some gains.

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Motley Fool contributor Aaron Bell has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Bendigo And Adelaide Bank and Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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