Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW) shares had a challenging time in 2024, sliding more than 16% into the red over that year.
But the grocery giant isn't down and out. It posted a 2.4% gain in the past month of trade and was fetching $30.65 at the time of writing.
Are Woolworths shares the ones to pick in 2025? Let's see what the experts think.
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Woolworths shares 'resilient'
Despite its dominant position in Australia's supermarket industry, Woolworths shares underperformed last year.
Woolworths caught several headlines, with the Australian Competition Consumer Commission (ACCC) starting proceedings against the supermarket giant over alleged misleading pricing. Similar charges were laid in New Zealand.
Nonetheless, some brokers are bullish on Woolworths shares.
Shaw and Partners' Jed Richards highlighted Woolworths' as a 'resilient' choice for investors, especially in a "negative share market".
Richards also spoke to its dominant market position, boasting a 30% share of the supermarket industry. According to The Australian:
The last decade for the Woolworths Group has been difficult. The Woolworths Group market cap has fallen to only $23 billion (previously $38 billion in 2020). Although competition from Coles, Aldi and Metcash continue to grow, Woolworths remains the dominant player with around 30% share of the supermarket industry.
With the industry forecasting an annual growth rate of 3% in Australia, we are confident that Woolworths will grow revenues and have the management in place to adapt to the changing environment… Due to the non discretionary spending, Woolworths shares are usually more resilient in a negative share market environment.
Richards rates Woolworths shares a buy.
Analysts project growth
The jury hasn't sealed the verdict on Woolworths just yet. According to CommSec data, the consensus of analyst estimates rates Woolworths a hold.
The split is four buys, eleven holds and two brokers recommending to sell shares in the grocery giant.
Goldman Sachs is one of the bulls, valuing the stock at $36.20 apiece. At the time of writing, this represents around 18% upside potential.
Goldman isn't' beating around the bush in its view on Woolworths.
It expects the company to hold 50% of the online supermarket industry by 2030 and predicts about 4% growth in non-digital markets each year until 2026.
In its December note on the supermarket giant, Goldman reckons the 17-day strike action at its distribution centres will have little long-term impact.
But in its "high-case" in the short term, the strike could have a 4% negative impact on the group's FY25 estimated pre-tax income, it says.
Despite this, it made no changes to its earnings forecasts.
Foolish takeaway
Woolworths shares managed to claw back some gains towards the back end of 2024 after a difficult year.
Experts reckon the stock can sustain this momentum in 2025, forecasting growth and market share gains in the years ahead.
Time will tell if this eventuates. The stock is up less than 1% so far this year.
