Woolworths shares 'resilient' as experts predict revenue growth in 2025

The supermarket giant is emerging from a difficult period of operations last year.

| More on:
Man with down syndrome working in supermarket.

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW) shares had a challenging time in 2024, sliding more than 16% into the red over that year.

But the grocery giant isn't down and out. It posted a 2.4% gain in the past month of trade and was fetching $30.65 at the time of writing.

Are Woolworths shares the ones to pick in 2025? Let's see what the experts think.

Woolworths shares 'resilient'

Despite its dominant position in Australia's supermarket industry, Woolworths shares underperformed last year.

Woolworths caught several headlines, with the Australian Competition Consumer Commission (ACCC) starting proceedings against the supermarket giant over alleged misleading pricing. Similar charges were laid in New Zealand.

Nonetheless, some brokers are bullish on Woolworths shares.

Shaw and Partners' Jed Richards highlighted Woolworths' as a 'resilient' choice for investors, especially in a "negative share market".

Richards also spoke to its dominant market position, boasting a 30% share of the supermarket industry. According to The Australian:

The last decade for the Woolworths Group has been difficult. The Woolworths Group market cap has fallen to only $23 billion (previously $38 billion in 2020). Although competition from Coles, Aldi and Metcash continue to grow, Woolworths remains the dominant player with around 30% share of the supermarket industry.

With the industry forecasting an annual growth rate of 3% in Australia, we are confident that Woolworths will grow revenues and have the management in place to adapt to the changing environment… Due to the non discretionary spending, Woolworths shares are usually more resilient in a negative share market environment.

Richards rates Woolworths shares a buy.

Analysts project growth

The jury hasn't sealed the verdict on Woolworths just yet. According to CommSec data, the consensus of analyst estimates rates Woolworths a hold.

The split is four buys, eleven holds and two brokers recommending to sell shares in the grocery giant.

Goldman Sachs is one of the bulls, valuing the stock at $36.20 apiece. At the time of writing, this represents around 18% upside potential.

Goldman isn't' beating around the bush in its view on Woolworths.

It expects the company to hold 50% of the online supermarket industry by 2030 and predicts about 4% growth in non-digital markets each year until 2026.

In its December note on the supermarket giant, Goldman reckons the 17-day strike action at its distribution centres will have little long-term impact.

But in its "high-case" in the short term, the strike could have a 4% negative impact on the group's FY25 estimated pre-tax income, it says.

Despite this, it made no changes to its earnings forecasts.

Foolish takeaway

Woolworths shares managed to claw back some gains towards the back end of 2024 after a difficult year.

Experts reckon the stock can sustain this momentum in 2025, forecasting growth and market share gains in the years ahead.

Time will tell if this eventuates. The stock is up less than 1% so far this year.

Motley Fool contributor Zach Bristow has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Consumer Staples & Discretionary Shares

A man casually dressed looks to the side in a pensive, thoughtful manner with one hand under his chin, holding a mobile phone in his hand while thinking about something.
Consumer Staples & Discretionary Shares

Woolworths shares: Buy, hold, sell?

Let's see what Bell Potter is saying about the retail giant.

Read more »

Happy couple doing online shopping.
Consumer Staples & Discretionary Shares

The best ASX retail shares to buy in FY26

Bell Potter thinks these shares could be top additions to an investment portfolio in the new financial year.

Read more »

A woman sits at her computer with her hand to her mouth and a contemplative smile on her face as she reads about the performance of Allkem shares on her computer
Consumer Staples & Discretionary Shares

Woolworths shares slip amid $100 million cost closure news

Woolworths announced a closure that’s expected to cost the supermarket giant some $100 million.

Read more »

A happy young woman in a red t-shirt hold up two delicious burritos.
Opinions

Bull vs. Bear: Guzman Y Gomez shares

Guzman Y Gomez shares peaked at $45.99 in February and closed at $28.04 yesterday. Where to now?

Read more »

Woman customer and grocery shopping cart in supermarket store, retail outlet or mall shop. Female shopper pushing trolley in shelf aisle to buy discount groceries, sale goods and brand offers.
Consumer Staples & Discretionary Shares

With a projected 7% dividend yield in FY29, is the Coles share price a buy?

Should this supermarket stock go in the shopping basket for passive income?

Read more »

kid with headphones using an electronic device with man looking at it
Consumer Staples & Discretionary Shares

Kogan shares just hit a 52-week low – is it time to buy?

Bargain hunters might want to monitor this ASX 300 company

Read more »

Young fruit picker clipping bunch of grapes in vineyard.
Broker Notes

How much upside does Macquarie see for Treasury Wine shares?

Macquarie has a neutral view on Treasury Wine shares, with an $8.50 price target and 11% upside.

Read more »

A man stands with his arms folded in front of banks of unused poker machines in a darkened gaming room.
Share Market News

Broker tipping 50% upside for this consumer discretionary company

This ASX 200 company could be set for a rebound

Read more »