National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) shares have delivered an excellent return over the past year. But the bank may need to back up the investor excitement with earnings growth in the next few years.
As we can see on the chart above, the NAB share price has jumped 22% in 2024 to date. Yet, in the FY24 result, the ASX bank share reported a statutory net profit after tax (NPAT) of $6.96 billion, down 6.1% compared to the 2023 financial year. NAB also reported that cash earnings declined 8.1% year over year to $7.1 billion.
A rising share price and a declining profit are undoubtedly an odd mix.
We can't know what will happen next, but some analysts have estimated what the ASX bank share may be capable of achieving. Let's start by looking at the commentary and projections for the 2025 financial year.
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First, FY25
Broker UBS said that underlying trends in the 2024 financial year remained weak and, divisionally, every segment saw cash NPAT reduce half over half outside of personal banking. The personal banking area is the only area that NAB has reportedly said it's willing to limit growth. Both lending and deposit margin competition continue to weigh on the net interest margin (NIM).
UBS also pointed out that NAB's loan arrears worsened in the second half of FY24. However, the amount of loans NAB's actually writing off and calling a bad loan remains below the historical average – this is helping delay when UBS thinks credit losses will increase. This dynamic is a positive for NAB shares.
The broker noted that NAB will aim to defend its incumbency in business banking. However, UBS also noted that the ASX bank share's return on equity (ROE) fell 10 basis points (0.10%) to 11.6% in the second half of FY24. This means the bank is making a smaller profit margin for how much shareholder money is retained within the bank.
UBS thinks rising expected loan losses, a higher normalised tax rate, increased competition in business banking, and higher costs will anchor NAB's ROE between 11.5% and 12%.
For FY25, UBS predicts that NAB will generate $20.85 billion in revenue and $7.19 billion in net profit.
Next, FY26
The next couple of financial years are predicted not to be as profitable for the bank.
UBS forecasts that NAB's revenue could rise to $21.3 billion in the 2026 financial year. However, net profit is projected to decline to $7.14 billion, a fall of approximately 1%.
Then, FY27
The 2027 financial year could see the ASX bank share's profit fall back further.
While revenue is predicted to increase to $21.65 billion, net profit is forecast to decline to $7.1 billion, a drop of close to 1% again.
After that, FY28
In the 2028 financial year, owners of NAB shares could start to see things turn around. The bank's revenue is predicted to rise again to $22.1 billion in FY28, and the net profit could climb by 3.6% to $7.35 billion.
Finally, FY29
The last financial year of this series of projections could see NAB make the most profit.
In the 2029 financial year, NAB is projected by UBS to generate $22.7 billion in revenue and $7.5 billion in net profit. That profit figure would represent 2.5% year-over-year growth.
If the bank does achieve that estimated figure, it would mean the NAB share price is valued at 15x FY29's estimated earnings.
