The ASX bank share ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) is predicted to be one of the few Australian companies to make more than $7 billion of profit in 2025. But, the more important financial number to focus on is where the bank's profit goes in the coming years.
It's a strange period for the banks at the moment, with competition hurting bank profitability.
In ANZ's recent FY24 result, the ASX bank share reported that both its statutory net profit after tax (NPAT) and cash profit fell by 8% to $6.5 billion and $6.7 billion, respectively.
Will the huge ASX financial share be able to grow its profit in the coming years? Let's check out what one expert thinks could happen with its earnings.
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First, the projection for FY25
The past year has been a period of significant change for the ASX bank share. In August, it completed its acquisition of Suncorp Bank from Suncorp Group Ltd (ASX: SUN) and last week told the market that CEO Shayne Elliott was retiring.
The acquisition gives ANZ greater scale, which should lead to several benefits, including geographic exposure. With that deal, ANZ's profit is predicted to scale up.
UBS projects that ANZ will generate $22.5 billion of revenue and make a statutory net profit of $7.2 billion in FY25, representing a 10% annual increase.
The broker said it was more positive about ANZ's near-term profit because of "better-than-expected bad debts as write-offs continue to remain below historical averages and higher non-NII [net interest income] revenue driven by an expected rebound in markets performance."
In terms of the new CEO, UBS said the following:
We like the option the ANZ board has gone with to appoint an external candidate as CEO of ANZ. In our opinion, this brings a fresh perspective and a clean slate for the successor to make the necessary changes to the group's operating model, drive an improved stakeholder outcome and introduce new ideas/focus into the group.
The most pressing challenges for Mr Matos, in our view, are likely to centre around (amongst others): 1) getting familiar with the Australian and New Zealand banking landscape, 2) establishing his executive team, 3) taking a decision on the current organizational and operating structure and 4) tackling the strategic priorities of ANZ Plus and Suncorp bank integration (amongst others).
How is FY26 shaping up?
Now, let's look at how UBS sees ANZ's profit playing out over the next few years. Profit generation is likely to affect ANZ shares in the future.
The broker expects the ASX bank share's revenue to rise by approximately $350 million to $22.9 million in the 2026 financial year, but the net profit to fall by approximately $20 million to $7.17 billion.
What about FY27 and FY28?
The 2027 financial year is predicted to get better for ANZ, with a suggestion that the ASX bank share's revenue could climb to $23.3 billion. This could help deliver a $100 million, or 1.4%, rise in net profit to $7.28 billion.
Interestingly, UBS is forecasting that ANZ's net profit could reduce in the 2028 financial year. While the broker expects revenue to rise by almost $600 million to $22.9 billion, it predicts that owners of ANZ shares will see net profit drop by $700 million to $6.66 billion.
Finally, FY29…
The last year in this series is the 2029 financial year. While it includes the prediction that FY29 could be the best year for revenue, strangely, it might be the worst year for profit generation. Time will tell if this prediction proves correct.
UBS projects ANZ to make $23 billion in revenue and a net profit of $6.4 billion, which would be a further reduction of a net profit of over $100 million.
