This ASX 200 uranium stock is 'incredibly cheap'

Bell Potter thinks big returns could be on offer from this uranium producer.

| More on:
A man pulls a shocked expression with mouth wide open as he holds up his laptop.

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Nuclear power is a hot topic at the moment and if you want some exposure to the industry then you could look at the ASX 200 uranium stock.

Especially after analysts at Bell Potter labelled this uranium producer as 'incredibly cheap'.

Which ASX 200 uranium stock?

The stock in question is Boss Energy Ltd (ASX: BOE).

It is focused on the re-start of the Honeymoon Uranium Project in South Australia. Management notes that Honeymoon represents one of the few uranium projects globally that is ready to come on-stream in the early stages of the emerging uranium bull market.

Bell Potter highlights that short sellers have been taking aim at the company. However, rather than being scared by this, the broker thinks that there's potential for a short squeeze to occur. Particularly given how short interest is the equivalent of 12.9 days' worth of trading volume and its cheap valuation. It explains:

BOE is currently the second most shorted stock on the ASX with short interest accounting for ~14.4% of shares outstanding, with a days-to-cover ratio of 12.9. With the stock down 22% over the last month alone, (uranium price is down 1.8%), investors continuing to hold short positions at this level run the risk of being squeezed in our opinion. At the current price of $2.51/sh, BOE implies a US$70/lb uranium price to perpetuity at an average LOM C1 cost of A$43/lb and AISC A$57/lb (US$30/lb and $40/lb respectively).

Under a scenario where uranium prices hold US$70/lb BOE's AISC margin of US$30/lb (43%) implies a rough EV/EBITDA multiple of 6.7x on a blended forward basis in FY26, which still screens incredibly cheap against North American peers (CCO/CCJ 12.9x, EU 9.6x, EFR 13.1x). In summary, short positions at this level need to be absolutely certain that BOE will disappoint on costs (BPe FY25 A$63/lb) or production (BPe FY25 850klbs) at its Jan-25 update. We see the potential for a pairs trade at this level given the recent outperformance of North American peers, with a likely unwinding in BOE shorts post the Jan-25 cost update.

Time to buy

According to the note, the broker has retained its buy rating with a reduced price target of $4.70 (from $5.70).

Based on its current share price of $2.51, this implies potential upside of 87% for investors over the next 12 months.

To put that into context, a $5,000 investment in this ASX 200 uranium stock would turn into approximately $9,350 if Bell Potter is on the money with its recommendation. It concludes:

We have applied a very conservative approach to our cost estimate, which sees a reduction in EPS of 68% in FY25, 14% in FY26 and 11% in FY27 and a reduction in our TP to $4.70 (previously $5.70). The purpose of this was to highlight the attractiveness of BOE at current prices under a scorched earth scenario. We see our earnings as having upside risk and maintain our Buy recommendation.

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Energy Shares

A man slumps crankily over his morning coffee as it pours with rain outside.
Energy Shares

Why are Boss Energy shares crashing 40% today?

This uranium stock is having a tough start to the week.

Read more »

Happy man standing in front of an oil rig.
Energy Shares

What does Macquarie think Karoon Energy shares are worth?

This broker has updated its guidance on this energy company

Read more »

Oil industry worker climbing up metal construction and smiling.
Energy Shares

ASX 200 energy shares lead the market as US trade deals fuel optimism

ASX energy shares lifted 3.94% as more US trade deals led to improved market sentiment.

Read more »

Woman with an amazed expression has her hands and arms out with a laptop in front of her.
Energy Shares

$10,000 invested in Paladin Energy shares 5 years ago is now worth…

July 2020 would have been a great time to buy Paladin Energy shares.

Read more »

Oil worker using a smartphone in front of an oil rig.
Energy Shares

Does Macquarie rate Woodside Energy shares a buy, hold or sell?

Let's see what the broker is saying about the energy giant.

Read more »

Coal miner standing in a coal mine.
Energy Shares

Up 62% since April, what's happening with Whitehaven shares today?

Whitehaven shares have enjoyed a strong rally since April despite weak coal prices.

Read more »

A young man punches the air in delight as he reacts to great news on his mobile phone.
Energy Shares

Why Macquarie sees Paladin Energy shares as a buy in the dip opportunity

This uranium stock could be a buy according to the broker.

Read more »

Happy man working on his laptop.
Energy Shares

Opportunity knocks: 2 ASX stocks ready to surge

Analysts expect big things from these shares.

Read more »