Why is everyone talking about the VIX Index today?

Fear or greed: Which investor sentiment will prevail today?

| More on:
A financial expert or broker looks worried as he checks out a graph showing market volatility.

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

The CBOE VIX Index, often called the 'fear gauge', has caught the attention of investors worldwide today as market jitters continue to mount.

The VIX is short for the Chicago Board of Options Volatility Index.

Used as a tool to gauge expected volatility in the US stock market, the VIX can signal turbulence ahead, helping investors understand potential shifts in market sentiment.

And now, with the week's big event behind us – the US Presidential Election on Wednesday Australian time – chatters of the VIX are making their way around investor circles. Let's take a closer look.

What is the VIX index?

The VIX Index measures the 30-day volatility of the S&P 500 Index (SP: .INX), considered the US equity benchmark. It doesn't focus on price. More precisely, it measures the expectations of future volatility on the S&P 500 and ignores past fluctuations.

In that vein, the VIX Index serves as a forward-looking gauge of investor sentiment.

When market expectations grow shaky, the VIX often spikes. Conversely, a low VIX typically reflects market calm or optimism.

This is one reason why it is also called the "fear and greed index" among investors. A high VIX equals fear. A low VIX equals greed.

How does it measure all of this?

CBOE constructs the index by analysing call and put option prices on the S&P 500, with expiration dates between 23 and 37 days out.

Options prices tend to rise when investors grow concerned, which in turn raises the VIX. Therefore, the index often moves in the opposite direction of stock prices.

While you can't directly invest in the VIX Index, it's possible to gain exposure through futures contracts or exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that aim to track the VIX.

VIX Index levels and what they mean

Here's a general guide to what different VIX levels indicate:

  • 0-15: Low, suggesting market optimism.
  • 15-20: Moderate, reflecting normal market conditions.
  • 20-25: Medium, suggesting growing market concerns.
  • 25-30: High, indicating a volatile environment.
  • 30+: Extremely high, signalling severe turbulence.

For example, the VIX spiked to 79 during the 2008 financial crisis. It hit a record 82.69 in March 2020 as COVID-19 fears were rampant. In contrast, during calmer periods like 2013, the VIX remained as low as 12.

At the time of writing, the index is sitting above 16, putting it in the 'moderate' category of fear.

What's up with the VIX today?

The index plunged overnight after confirmation Donald Trump had won the US Presidential election, triggering a wave of inflows to US equity markets.

So-called 'quant' funds, which bet on specific rules and data on the VIX, are expected to pile into stocks after the result.

About US$50 billion of inflows into US shares could take place over the coming month says investment bank Nomura, quoted by The Australian Financial Review.

The bank also projects a total of US$110 billion into the same markets by January next year.

What's important is that the VIX level has dropped following the US election results, potentially signalling a more optimistic tone in markets and a more risk-on attitude.

In saying that, it's still early days.

While the US markets closed higher overnight, the optimism didn't permeate the ASX, with the S&P/ASX 200 index (ASX: XJO) down 0.4% at the time of writing.

Foolish takeaway

The VIX Index remains a critical indicator for gauging market sentiment, particularly in times of uncertainty.

Measuring 'fear and greed' on Wall Street, the index dropped overnight, potentially signalling the market's optimism.

Time will tell what happens from here.

Motley Fool contributor Zach Bristow has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on International Stock News

A young kid with dark glasses rocks out with a guitar.
International Stock News

Why Nvidia stock rallied to a new all-time high on Wednesday

The changing of the guard bodes well for the artificial intelligence (AI) chip specialist.

Read more »

A handsome smiling man sits in the front seat of an electric vehicle with his hands on the wheel feeling pleased that the Carsales share price is going up and the company will shortly pay its biggest dividend ever
International Stock News

Why Tesla stock just skyrocketed

Why is Donald Trump's election victory powering explosive gains for Tesla stock?

Read more »

Man holding up betting slip and cheering along with two friends in front of TV
International Stock News

Elon Musk's big gamble: Will Tesla stock plunge if Kamala Harris wins the election?

The Tesla CEO has been an outspoken advocate for GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump. Will it backfire?

Read more »

Four investors stand in a line holding cash fanned in their hands with thoughtful looks on their faces.
Economy

Up 20% this year. Does the S&P 500 Index have more in the tank for 2024?

Will US stocks hold up after the election?

Read more »

two young boys dressed in business suits and wearing spectacles look at each other in rapture with wide open mouths and holding large fans of banknotes with other banknotes, coins and a piggybank on the table in front of them and a bag of cash at the side.
International Stock News

2 magnificent S&P 500 dividend stocks down 27% to 51% to buy and hold forever

These stocks hold potential to act as growth and income plays.

Read more »

A young female investor with brown curly hair and wearing a yellow top and glasses sits at her desk using her calculator to work out how much her ASX dividend shares will pay this year
International Stock News

One Wall Street analyst thinks this emerging Artificial Intelligence stock could rise 60% in the next year

SoundHound AI is on the doorstep of a big year.

Read more »

man looks up at apple on his head
International Stock News

Why did Warren Buffett sell more Apple shares?

Does Buffett know something we don't?

Read more »

A male party goer sits wearing a party hat and with a party blower in his mouth amid a bunch of balloons with a sad, serious look on his face as though the party is over or a celebration has fallen flat.
International Stock News

What snapped the S&P 500 winning streak last night?

The S&P 500 almost made October a winner, but fell at the final hurdle.

Read more »