Are Woolworths shares a bargain buy after being sold off?

Let's see what Goldman Sachs is saying about this blue chip following its update.

| More on:
Woman smiles at camera at she buys greens from the supermarket.

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

sdf

Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW) shares had a difficult time on Wednesday and were sold off by investors.

The retail giant's shares ended the session 6% lower at $30.81.

This leaves them trading within touching distance of a 52-week low.

Why did Woolworths shares crash?

Investors were hitting the sell button yesterday after Woolworths released its first quarter update.

Although Woolworths reported a solid 4.5% increase in group sales over the prior corresponding period to $18 billion, earnings from its key Australian Food business disappointed.

Management revealed that it currently expects "H1 F25 EBIT, including $40 million of incremental supply chain costs, to be within a range of $1,480 million to $1,530 million compared to $1,595 million in H1 F24."

This sparked fears that Woolworths is sacrificing margin to boost its market share.

What are analysts saying?

The team at Goldman Sachs has been running the rule over the update and has concerns that it could be "distracted in its core business and spending too much on experiments."

Nevertheless, the broker sees opportunities for Woolworths to be more efficient in the second half. It explains:

We see three specific areas for WOW to improve into 2H25: 1) Promotional effectiveness: Management noted opportunities for tighter promotions mix leveraging NexGen promotional tools as well as ensuring balance between promotions and EDLP. 2) Cost out program: Management noted that AU Foods is on-track for hundreds of millions of dollars of productivity in FY25 and several initiatives are being accelerated including support cost optimization, stock loss mitigation and organization simplification.

3) Step-up in profitable ancillary services: AU Foods online sales grew ~24% YoY in 1Q25 with Cartlogy growing ~15% YoY. We believe the continued growth of high margin Retail Media will further enable WOW to invest in price to gain share. GSe Retail Media can scale to ~A$1.4B sales and ~478mn in incremental profit (~12% of AU Foods EBIT) by FY30.

Should you invest?

Goldman Sachs thinks that Woolworths shares are trading at a very attractive level.

According to the note, its analysts have reaffirmed their buy rating but cut their price target to $36.20 (from $39.20).

Based on the current Woolworths share price, this implies potential upside of 17.5% for investors over the next 12 months.

Goldman also expects a fully franked 3.1% dividend yield in FY 2025, lifting the total potential return beyond 20%. It concludes:

While WOW is facing transition challenges as its new CEO recalibrates WOW's strategy against a value consumer, we believe that WOW's structural advantages of its store network, scaled online position and leading data/analytics capabilities will enable market share wins in the medium term. WOW is FY26 P/E of ~21x vs historical avg 26x.

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Goldman Sachs Group. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Broker Notes

Six smiling office colleagues stand in a row and look at the camera.
Broker Notes

Brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy today

Here's why brokers are feeling bullish about these three shares this week.

Read more »

woman holding 'hiring' sign in shop
Broker Notes

How much upside does Macquarie tip for Seek shares?

The broker recently reviewed Australian job ad volumes for May.

Read more »

Ecstatic woman looking at her phone outside with her fist pumped.
Broker Notes

Macquarie tips 50% return for this cheap ASX All Ords stock

Let's see which stock the broker is feeling bullish about this week.

Read more »

A woman sits at her home computer with baby on her lap, and the winning ticket in her hand.
Consumer Staples & Discretionary Shares

How much upside does Macquarie expect for Lottery Corporation shares?

This ASX 200 stock has proven resilient through various economic conditions.

Read more »

Frustrated stock trader screaming while looking at mobile phone, symbolising a falling share price.
Broker Notes

Guess which ASX 300 stock was downgraded to sell today

Bell Potter has become bearish on this stock. But why?

Read more »

Young businesswoman sitting in kitchen and working on laptop.
Broker Notes

Is the ResMed share price still cheap? What the numbers say

Let's see what analysts are saying about this blue chip as it nears a 52-week high.

Read more »

A woman sits at her computer with her chin resting on her hand as she contemplates her next potential investment.
Broker Notes

What does Macquarie think REA shares are worth?

Top broker Macquarie has reviewed its rating and price target on REA shares.

Read more »

Woman checking out new TVs.
Broker Notes

Does JP Morgan think JB Hi-Fi shares can keep rising?

The retailer is up 16% for the year to date.

Read more »