Own NAB shares? Here's your preview of the FY24 result

It's nearly FY24 report time. What is expected of the bank?

| More on:
Three happy multi-ethnic business colleagues discuss investment or finance possibilities in an office.

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

ASX bank share National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) is due to hand in its FY24 report soon. Considering the current state of interest rates, inflation, and the Australian economy, this could be a very interesting result for NAB shareholders.

Created with Highcharts 11.4.3National Australia Bank PriceZoom1M3M6MYTD1Y5Y10YALL29 Oct 202329 Oct 2024Zoom ▾Nov '23Jan '24Mar '24May '24Jul '24Sep '24Jan '24Jan '24Apr '24Apr '24Jul '24Jul '24Oct '24Oct '24www.fool.com.au

The past year has been a great time to own NAB shares. The NAB share price has climbed over 30%, as shown in the chart above.

The bank is due to release its FY24 result on 7 November. This will be the day to see whether the numbers reported back-up investor excitement about the ASX bank share.

As experienced investors know, a result isn't just about what the pure numbers tell us. The market reaction is usually based on how the company has performed compared to expectations. So, let's look at what some investors expect from the business.

FY24 forecasts for NAB shares

An important number for shareholders is the earnings per share (EPS) figure. This figure tells us how much profit a company returns per share, giving some underlying backing for each share's value.

Broker UBS forecasts that NAB could generate $2.17 of EPS in FY24. The consensus of market analysts (meaning the average) forecast for FY24 EPS is $2.25.

UBS predicts that NAB may make $20.3 billion in revenue, $9.87 billion in pre-tax profit, and $6.9 billion in net profit for the overall 2024 financial year.

As the bank has already reported its FY24 first-half result and the FY24 third quarter, there is only one quarter of FY24's numbers that investors don't know about.

For the FY24 fourth quarter, UBS predicts that the ASX bank share will generate net operating income of $5.1 billion and $1.6 billion of cash earnings (down 9% year over year), including a credit impairment charge of $340 million. The broker projects statutory net profit for the fourth quarter to be $1.45 billion (down 16% year over year).

The market consensus is more optimistic for the fourth quarter, with cash earnings projected to be $1.76 billion and statutory net profit of $1.62 billion

Added to the third quarter, UBS is expecting NAB to show it made $3.35 billion of net profit in the second half of FY24. The market consensus numbers show expectations of just over $3.5 billion of net profit.

What about the dividend?

Some owners of NAB shares may be looking very intently at what the ASX bank share pays in dividends.

NAB paid an annual dividend per share of $1.67 in FY23, and the forecast on Commsec suggests the bank could pay an annual dividend per share of $1.68 in FY24. That would mean a final dividend of 84 cents could be declared with the FY24 result if the prediction is correct.

Time will tell how close all of these forecasts are to reality.

I'm intrigued to see what the bank says regarding its loan growth, lending margins and its arrears.

Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Bank Shares

Bank building with the word bank in gold.
Bank Shares

Guess which ASX 200 bank stock is down 4% after posting a quarterly profit decline

Let's see how this bank performed during the third quarter.

Read more »

Hologram of a man next to a human robot, symbolising artificial intelligence.
Bank Shares

How artificial intelligence could transform the banking industry

ANZ describes the move as “the single-biggest change program” the bank will undertake over the next few years.

Read more »

A man in a business shirt and tie takes a wide leap over a large steel trap with jagged teeth.
Bank Shares

5.75% yield: Are ANZ shares a dividend trap?

ANZ's dividend currently beats out its own term deposits.

Read more »

A woman sits in a cafe wearing a polka dotted shirt and holding a latte in one hand while reading something on a laptop that is sitting on the table in front of her
Bank Shares

Here's the earnings forecast out to 2029 for CBA shares

How much earnings could CBA generate in the coming years?

Read more »

A man in a suit smiles at the yellow piggy bank he holds in his hand.
Bank Shares

CBA shares hit a new $176 record high. Too late to buy?

What can stop this bank now?

Read more »

man thinking about whether to invest in bitcoin
Bank Shares

Is this the right time to invest in Westpac shares after the interest rate cut?

Should investors bank on rate cuts helping Westpac?

Read more »

A woman sits at her computer with her hand to her mouth and a contemplative smile on her face as she reads about the performance of Allkem shares on her computer
Bank Shares

How did ASX bank shares react to the RBA decision?

The Reserve Bank of Australia just reduced interest rates by 0.25% in the second cut for 2025.

Read more »

A young woman sits at her desk in deep contemplation with her hand to her chin while seriously considering information she is reading on her laptop.
Dividend Investing

Dividends from ASX 200 bank shares 'looking very stretched': expert

The banks have always been a favourite choice among ASX dividend investors. But the outlook ain't great.

Read more »