Up 200% in a year, is the Chemist Warehouse merger already fully priced into Sigma shares?

Have investors gotten too ahead of themselves with Sigma?

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One of the most successful ASX 200 shares to have been invested in over the past year has been healthcare stock Sigma Healthcare Ltd (ASX: SIG). 

This time in 2023, you could have picked up a share of Sigma for just 62 cents. But today, that same share will set you back $1.88.

That means the Sigma share price has rocketed by just over 200% in that 12-month period.

Check it out for yourself below:

Of course, these astonishing gains haven't come out of the blue. They are almost certainly a result of Sigma's ambitious plans to merge with the pharmacy giant Chemist Warehouse. 

This merger, first announced in December last year, will result in a complicated 'backdoor listing' of Chemist Warehouse on the ASX through its marriage to Sigma.

Most of the Sigma share price's phenomenal gains of the past year have come over just the past month. This coincides with the merger overcoming several regulatory and legal hurdles and looking relatively certain to proceed.

ASX investors are clearly excited over the opportunity to invest in Australia's largest pharmaceutical chain. But with much of the excitement arguably already baked into Sigma shares at their current pricing, is it even worth buying into this merger today?

Are Sigma shares a buy ahead of the Chemist Warehouse merger?

Well, it seems ASX experts are fairly united on this one.

Last week, my Fool colleague went through the views of the management team of WAM Research Ltd (ASX: WAX). As we covered then, Wilson Asset Management currently holds Sigma shares in its WAM Research portfolio with the expectation that it will deliver for its investors.

WAM is confident the merger will go ahead. Its management is reportedly "excited at the prospect of owning one of the country's best retailers with a global store roll-out on the horizon". The company also anticipates that Chemist Warehouse has plenty of room to keep expanding, both in Australia and overseas.

But Wilson Asset Management isn't the only professional investor eyeing Sigma off right now.

Fund manager Surrey Asset Management also currently holds Sigma as a major investment in its Australian Equities Fund. Surrey has just told its clients that it was impressed with Sigma's recent earnings. It also reportedly views Chemist Warehouse's latest financials "favourably".

The fund manager believes that these earnings improve the chances of the merger going ahead. Surrey seems content with Sigma as a "material holding of the fund".

So, these two ASX experts seem to argue that it is still very much worth buying Sigma shares today. That's thanks to the fact that the full value of the Chemist Warehouse merger isn't yet reflected in the Sigma share price. That's despite the 200% gain that Sigma shares have already delivered over the past year, of course. No doubt investors will be delighted to hear this.

But let's see if the marriage does indeed go ahead later this year. 

Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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