Why are Qantas shares beating the ASX 200 this month?

Investors have been actively buying the stock.

| More on:
a passenger plane is on the tarmac with passenger shute attached with a view of the surrounding land and sunset in the background.

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Qantas Airways Ltd (ASX: QAN) shares have outperformed the broader market in recent weeks after a string of recent updates.

Shares in the airline have gained nearly 3% over the past 30 days, compared to the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO), which is up just 1.8%.

Here's why investors are lifting the Qantas share price to its current levels.

Qantas shares outperform

Qantas' FY24 financial results in August drove the initial buying thrust in the airline's shares. First was the company's growth, with reported revenues up by 10% to nearly $22 billion.

But another likely factor is the cash Qantas seeks to return to its shareholders over the coming years.

Management said it could buy back up to $400 million of the company's stock, which is more than 3% of Qantas' market capitalisation at the time of writing.

The frosting on top was the hint that management might even consider starting to pay dividends again by H2 FY25. I'm keeping my fingers crossed.

This kind of capital return has likely helped lift demand for Qantas shares in recent weeks.

But Qantas' long-held position as Australia's leading long-haul international airline carrier is facing fresh challenges.

Qatar Airways and Virgin Australia recently inked a deal that sees Qatar take a 25% equity stake in Virgin. This move could stiffen competition on long-haul international routes.

Lower ticket prices and stronger competition could impact the profit pool for everyone moving forward, but we shall see.

It is interesting that investors seem to have broadly looked beyond a Federal Court ruling last week slapping the airline with a $100 million penalty for selling tickets it had already cancelled during COVID-19.

The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) started court proceedings against Qantas in August last year.

Qantas admitted its wrongdoings in the matter back in May.

What do brokers say?

While the Virgin-Qtatar deal initially grabbed a few headlines, the overall position on Qantas shares from analysts looks to have remained unchanged.

Analysts at UBS have been bullish on Qantas, maintaining a buy rating with a price target of $7.50 in early October.

It says that FY25 is "the new normal" for Qantas after the pandemic era, with "strong valuation support" behind the airline, according to my colleague Tristan.

Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs also has a buy rating on Qantas shares with a higher price target of $8.05, despite recently removing the stock from its APAC Conviction List.

Foolish takeaway

Qantas shares have outperformed the broader market this past month as investors look to what the airline has in store for the future.

In the past twelve months, Qantas shares have lifted 41%.

Motley Fool contributor Zach Bristow has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Goldman Sachs Group. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Travel Shares

Bored woman waiting for her flight at the airport.
Travel Shares

Why are Web Travel shares tumbling 6% today?

Its suspension is over. What's going on with this travel stock?

Read more »

A woman looks up at a plane flying in the sky with arms outstretched as the Flight Centre share price surges
Travel Shares

The Qantas share price has flown 66% higher in 2024, this top broker thinks it can gain more altitude

Qantas shares may not be finished rising.

Read more »

a man holds his arms out and shrugs his shoulders as if indicating he doesn't know the answer to a question he's been asked.
Travel Shares

Why is Web Travel stock such a hot topic today?

This travel stock isn't going anywhere today. Why isn't it moving?

Read more »

Man sitting in a plane seat works on his laptop.
Travel Shares

Why this ASX travel share is grounded two days before results

Investors now wait in anticipation.

Read more »

A corporate-looking woman looks at her mobile phone as she pulls along her suitcase in another hand while walking through an airport terminal with high glass panelled walls.
Travel Shares

This ASX travel share is 'going to take off' after falling 30%

Back your bags.

Read more »

A woman sits crossed legged on seats at an airport holding her ticket and smiling.
Travel Shares

Down 23% in a month, why this ASX 200 stock is an 'attractive opportunity'

After falling hard, a top fund manager is seeing an opportunity with this stock.

Read more »

A line of people sitting at a long desk in an annual general meeting
Travel Shares

Why today is a big day for Flight Centre shares

Why is everyone talking about Flight Centre shares today?

Read more »

A woman reaches her arms to the sky as a plane flies overhead at sunset.
Travel Shares

Why this fund manager still thinks Qantas shares are a cheap buy

One expert still has a lot of belief in Qantas shares.

Read more »