This is my top ASX bank share pick for the long-term

There is one ASX bank share I'd want to buy.

| More on:
Smiling man working on his laptop.

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

There are lots of different ASX bank shares for Aussies to choose from, but nearly all of them offer very similar financial products.

Think about the numerous listed competitors in the lending space, such as Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA), Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC), National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB), ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ), Bank of Queensland Ltd (ASX: BOQ), Bendigo and Adelaide Bank Ltd (ASX: BEN), Pepper Money Ltd (ASX: PPM) and MyState Ltd (ASX: MYS).

Then there are many non-ASX competitors like ING, HSBC, Athena and more.

With such a competitive banking space, one name appeals to me the most: Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG), for three key reasons.

Segment diversification

Macquarie is a very diversified business when it comes to its operations.

When I think about names like Westpac, CBA and BOQ, they earn a large amount of their profit from lending to households, and some of the profit comes from business and institutional banking. Ultimately, most of their profits relate to lending.

Macquarie has four main divisions, one of which is its banking and financial services (BFS) segment. According to my colleague Zach Bristow's reporting, Macquarie's banking operations are growing quickly.

In July, Macquarie's mortgage book growth was 1.6%, five times faster than the overall banking system. This reportedly led to its market share of owner-occupier and investor lending growing to 5.5%.

But Macquarie is much more than that.

It has three other divisions – investment banking, asset management, and commodities and global markets (CGM).

This gives shareholders protection if one sector has a rough year, and it also gives Macquarie the potential to invest in whichever segment it sees as having the best growth opportunities.

Global business

Another advantage that Macquarie has over the local ASX bank shares is its global operations.

Macquarie generates approximately two-thirds of its income from international sources. The Americas account for around a third of its income, Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA) for just under a quarter, and Asia currently accounts for 9% of total income.

This global exposure means Macquarie isn't reliant on one economy to make profits. It gives it more geographic exposure.

Another benefit of having global operations is that Macquarie can invest anywhere it wants to in the world to make the best returns.

Australia's banks are stuck in Australia and New Zealand with a relatively small number of customers.

Earnings growth

Plenty of ASX bank shares are struggling to increase earnings due to competition from each other and brokers, higher funding costs, and limited demand for credit in the current high interest rate environment.

I believe the Macquarie share price is the most compelling option in the sector because of its long track record of compounding earnings growth and the projection that net profit can keep rising over the next several years.

According to UBS, Macquarie is projected to grow its net profit to $4 billion. That puts the Macquarie share price at approximately 21x FY25's estimated earnings.

UBS is forecasting that Macquarie can grow its net profit each year to FY28 when it's projected to make $5.6 billion of profit, a rise of 38% over that time period. CBA, widely seen as Australia's best bank, is only projected to see profit growth of 9% between FY25 and FY28.

For me, Macquarie shares are a much more appealing ASX bank share option for the long term.

Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Bendigo And Adelaide Bank and Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Financial Shares

Man smiling at a laptop because of a rising share price.
Financial Shares

Why did the AMP share price just leap 12%?

The AMP share price is rocketing higher on Thursday. But why?

Read more »

Modern accountant woman in a light business suit in modern green office with documents and laptop.
Financial Shares

4 reasons IAG stock could see 'material earnings upside'

Here’s what could drive IAG stock in the next two years, according to this fundie.

Read more »

Questioning asx share price represented by investor with question mark bag over face
Financial Shares

Someone is buying $125 million of this ASX Warren Buffett stock

$125 million worth of this ASX-listed company is now under someone else's control.

Read more »

A human-like robot checks out market performance on a laptop, indicating the rise of AI shares.
Financial Shares

Here are the latest AI initiatives that could help drive Macquarie shares

Here’s how AI could provide a real boost for the investment bank.

Read more »

A young man in a city street with a hopeful look on his face.
Financial Shares

AMP's $1.1 billion capital return program is complete. What does this mean for dividends?

What are the chances that AMP shareholders will continue to receive passive income?

Read more »

A man sits thoughtfully on the couch with a laptop on his lap.
Financial Shares

Up 87% in a year, why is this ASX 200 stock charging higher on Thursday?

This high flying ASX 200 company is charging higher again today. But why?

Read more »

A young woman uses a laptop and calculator while working from home.
Dividend Investing

Should I buy AMP shares today for passive income?

Are AMP shares a good buy to earn passive income?

Read more »

A man holds his hand under his chin as he concentrates on his laptop screen and reads about the ANZ share price
Financial Shares

Guess which ASX All Ords stock just tanked on a major update

Investors may have been expecting a little more.

Read more »