The Rio Tinto share price soared in September, what's next?

Let's dig into why the ASX mining share beat the market last month.

| More on:
Two miners standing together.

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

The Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) share price performed strongly for shareholders during September, surging almost 16%. It materially beat the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO), which was up by 2.2% over the month.

Created with Highcharts 11.4.3Rio Tinto Group PriceZoom1M3M6MYTD1Y5Y10YALL1 Jul 202430 Sep 2024Zoom ▾1 Jul15 Jul29 Jul12 Aug26 Aug9 Sep23 SepJul '24Jul '24Aug '24Aug '24Sep '24Sep '24www.fool.com.au

The ASX mining share's iron ore division typically generates the biggest proportion of earnings.

Recent developments with China and the iron ore price have captured many headlines in the last couple of weeks and may be the key driver for the strong rebound of the Rio Tinto share price in September.

Let's look at what has rejuvenated investor confidence in Rio Tinto shares.

China launches financial stimulus

Last month, China launched a significant fiscal stimulus package in a bid to boost its struggling economy.

According to media reports, the People's Bank of China governor Pan Gongsheng announced that the Chinese central bank would reduce the reserve requirement ratio (RRR), which measures how much cash banks must hold in reserve. The RRR will be reduced by 50 basis points, which will unlock 1 trillion yuan (or US$142 billion) for new lending.

Pan also said that depending on the market liquidity environment later in the year, the RRR could be reduced by another 25 to 50 basis points (0.25% to 0.50%).

Another benefit for the Chinese economy is that the PBOC will also cut the seven-day reverse repo rate by 0.2 percentage points to 1.5%.

The Chinese property market is being supported through a 50 basis point (0.50%) reduction for existing mortgages and a cut in the minimum deposit required to 15% on all types of homes.

Other financial measures were also announced to boost the economy.

Iron ore price soars

According to reporting by the Australian Financial Review, the iron ore price soared 10% on Monday, the final day of September, to more than US$110 per tonne.

This commodity price is key for Rio Tinto's profitability because its mining costs don't change much month-to-month or even year-to-year. Therefore, when the iron ore price rises, the extra revenue largely adds straight onto the net profit after tax.

If the iron ore price were to stay above US$110 per tonne for the foreseeable future, it would mean the ASX iron ore share can generate a lot more profit each month than analysts were thinking a month ago.

What could happen next?

It's extremely difficult to predict what will happen next with iron ore because it's heavily dependent on Chinese demand, which has been unpredictable this year (and in the past).

Broker UBS' chief China economist Tao Wang and head of China property research John Lam believe "more is needed to appropriate stabilise property market activity and house prices, thereby supporting consumer confidence and ultimately consumption."

When UBS released a note on 25 September, it said that with its forecasts and view on the iron ore price and better free cash flow and valuation multiples, Rio Tinto shares screened "better value" than BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP).

Should you invest $1,000 in Veem Ltd right now?

Before you buy Veem Ltd shares, consider this:

Motley Fool investing expert Scott Phillips just revealed what he believes are the 5 best stocks for investors to buy right now... and Veem Ltd wasn't one of them.

The online investing service he’s run for over a decade, Motley Fool Share Advisor, has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.*

And right now, Scott thinks there are 5 stocks that may be better buys...

See The 5 Stocks *Returns as of 30 April 2025

Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Resources Shares

Three miners wearing hard hats and high vis vests take a break on site at a mine as the Fortescue share price drops in FY22
Resources Shares

Did you catch what happened with the big 3 ASX 200 mining stocks in April?

BHP, Rio Tinto, and Fortescue all reported their latest mining results in April.

Read more »

Miner looking at a tablet.
Resources Shares

After its earnings result, what's Macquarie's price target on Fortescue shares?

Let’s dig into what Macquarie thinks of Fortescue after its quarterly update.

Read more »

Two mining workers on a laptop at a mine site.
Resources Shares

The Mineral Resources share price is down 72% in a year. Time to pounce?

Two top experts ran their slide rules over Mineral Resources shares. Here’s what they found.

Read more »

Miner looking at a tablet.
Resources Shares

Mineral Resources share price shoots 15% higher on third-quarter report

The ASX 200 iron ore and lithium giant has released its 3Q FY25 activities report.

Read more »

Image from either construction, mining or the oil industry of a friendly worker.
Resources Shares

Why Macquarie says this ASX 200 mining stock could rocket 67% in a year

Macquarie forecasts a big potential rebound for this diversified ASX 200 miner.

Read more »

Female miner smiling at a mine site.
Resources Shares

3 reasons why the Fortescue share price could still be a buy

Here’s why I view Fortescue as an opportunity.

Read more »

A man wearing a hard hat and high visibility vest looks out over a vast plain where heavy mining equipment can be seen in the background.
Resources Shares

Here's the latest earnings forecast out to 2029 for Rio Tinto shares

Let’s unearth what this mining giant is predicted to achieve.

Read more »

Female miner smiling in front of a mining vehicle.
Resources Shares

Is the BHP share price a buy? Here's UBS' view

Let’s dig into what an expert thinks of this mining giant.

Read more »