A number of ASX 200 mining stocks have come under pressure this month. This has seen the likes of BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) and Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) shares tumble to 52-week lows.
One mining stock that could be destined to join them at 52-week lows in the near future is coal miner New Hope Corporation Ltd (ASX: NHC).
That's the view of analysts at Goldman Sachs, which are warning that its shares could be about to crash deep into the red.
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What is the broker saying about this ASX 200 mining stock?
Goldman Sachs notes that the coal miner has just released its fourth quarter update and underperformed expectations due to the Bengalla operation. It said:
NHC reported 4Q24 total saleable coal production and sales of 2.5Mt/2.6Mt, +8% QoQ but -5%/-2% vs. GSe, with a strong performance from the New Acland mine offsetting softer volumes from Bengalla due to impact from rail cancellations in the Hunter Valley region. NHC group level sales were 8.7Mt during FY24, 5% below their 9.3Mt group level guidance. Underlying EBITDA for full year was reported at A$869mn, 5% below GSe A$909mn due to higher costs and lower realised pricing.
In light of this, the broker has seen nothing to change its mind that this an ASX 200 mining stock to avoid right now.
According to the note, the broker has retained its sell rating and cut its price target to $3.80 (from $3.90). Based on its current share price of $4.98, this implies potential downside of approximately 24% for investors over the next 12 months.
Why is the broker bearish?
There are a number of reasons why Goldman is feeling bearish about this ASX 200 mining stock.
One is its valuation and free cash flow (FCF) generation. It explains:
The stock is trading at ~1.35x NAV (A$3.88/sh) and discounting a long-run thermal coal price of ~US$100/t (real) vs. our US$85/t estimate (based on our view of long run global marginal costs). NHC is also trading on a NTM EBITDA multiple of ~5x vs. global coal peers on ~4.5x (median). We note that FCF yield is 0%/10% in FY24/25 on our ~US$138/115/t thermal coal price assumptions, and 0%/16% at spot thermal (both include benefits from hedging).
Another reason to be concerned is the softening outlook of the thermal coal market. The broker adds:
Our global commodity team forecasts a ~40Mt surplus for 2024 due to decreasing global import demand, largely driven by a weakening in China hoarding demand (-80Mt) and high inventory levels, and growing export capacity (+50Mt) from Indonesia, Australia and Russia, and we expect marginal costs to fall to US$100/t in 2H 2024 and into 2025. We forecast US$126/t for 6000kcal NEWC benchmark in 2024.
Overall, investors may want to give this miner a wide berth until its shares trade with a more attractive valuation.
