After smashing the ASX 200 in July, what's next for the Qantas share price?

Qantas shares leapt more than 10% in July. Can this outperformance continue?

| More on:
Man in suit looks through binoculars in front of a control tower at an airport.

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

The Qantas Airways Ltd (ASX: QAN) share price just closed out a fantastic July.

Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) airline stock finished off June trading for $5.85 each.

When the closing bell sounded on 31 July, those same shares were changing hands for $6.46 apiece.

That put the Qantas share price up an impressive 10.4% over the month or more than double the 4.2% gains posted by the ASX 200 in July.

Here's what's been happening.

Qantas share price flies higher in July

There was no new price-sensitive news from the airline in July.

Instead, the Qantas share price broadly continued with the upward trend it entered in early March when shares hit a 2024 low closing price of $5.01.

That comes as Qantas continues to rebuild its battered brand image following some difficult months post the pandemic reopening.

In July, the airline also received positive broker and fund manager coverage, including from Shaw and Partners senior investment advisor Jed Richards.

Richards has a buy rating on Qantas and cited numerous reasons why he believes the ASX 200 airline is well-positioned for ongoing strong performance.

Among those, he said, "The company's loyalty business is expected to double earnings over the next five to seven years."

He also thinks the Qantas share price will "benefit from new and more fuel-efficient aircraft."

And atop the airline's solid balance sheet, Richards expects shareholders to benefit from the rollout of Project Sunrise, which will offer direct flights from Australia's east coast to New York and London.

July also saw Regional Express Holdings Ltd (ASX: REX) enter administration.

Rex's regional flights are continuing for now.

However, Rex has halted all flights between the Sydney, Melbourne, and Brisbane airports, and its fleet of Boeing 737s is grounded.

While that's unlikely to have an immediate material impact for Qantas, it could support the company's share price with yet another junior competitor hitting the skids in 2024, with Bonza having run into difficulties earlier this year.

In a statement, Qantas said it was "prepared to connect Rex employees with potential opportunities within the Qantas Group as they go through the process of voluntary administration".

Now what?

Well, the first three trading days of August haven't started with a bang.

To say the least.

The Qantas share price closed down 4.93% yesterday, ending the day at $5.78 a share.

That sees shares in the ASX 200 airline down 10.53% since the market close in July.

Of course, it's not just Qantas under pressure in August. The ASX 200 closed down 3.7% yesterday, putting the benchmark index down 5.47% in the new month.

As for what's next, I think that the longer-term outlook for the flying kangaroo remains strong.

With the past three days of selling, the Qantas share price is again down some 20% from its pre-COVID levels, despite domestic travel demand rebounding to 2019 levels and international travel demand also closing in on that milestone.

And with the oil price heading sharply lower in recent weeks, Qantas could enjoy some extra tailwinds from lower fuel bills in the months ahead.

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Travel Shares

Bored woman waiting for her flight at the airport.
Travel Shares

Why are Web Travel shares tumbling 6% today?

Its suspension is over. What's going on with this travel stock?

Read more »

A woman looks up at a plane flying in the sky with arms outstretched as the Flight Centre share price surges
Travel Shares

The Qantas share price has flown 66% higher in 2024, this top broker thinks it can gain more altitude

Qantas shares may not be finished rising.

Read more »

a man holds his arms out and shrugs his shoulders as if indicating he doesn't know the answer to a question he's been asked.
Travel Shares

Why is Web Travel stock such a hot topic today?

This travel stock isn't going anywhere today. Why isn't it moving?

Read more »

Man sitting in a plane seat works on his laptop.
Travel Shares

Why this ASX travel share is grounded two days before results

Investors now wait in anticipation.

Read more »

A corporate-looking woman looks at her mobile phone as she pulls along her suitcase in another hand while walking through an airport terminal with high glass panelled walls.
Travel Shares

This ASX travel share is 'going to take off' after falling 30%

Back your bags.

Read more »

A woman sits crossed legged on seats at an airport holding her ticket and smiling.
Travel Shares

Down 23% in a month, why this ASX 200 stock is an 'attractive opportunity'

After falling hard, a top fund manager is seeing an opportunity with this stock.

Read more »

A line of people sitting at a long desk in an annual general meeting
Travel Shares

Why today is a big day for Flight Centre shares

Why is everyone talking about Flight Centre shares today?

Read more »

A woman reaches her arms to the sky as a plane flies overhead at sunset.
Travel Shares

Why this fund manager still thinks Qantas shares are a cheap buy

One expert still has a lot of belief in Qantas shares.

Read more »