5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Monday

It looks set to be a good day for Aussie investors.

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On Friday, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) finished a difficult week on a positive note. The benchmark index rose 0.75% to 7,921.3 points.

Will the market be able to build on this on Monday? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 expected to rise again

The Australian share market looks set to rise again on Monday following a strong finish on Wall Street on Friday. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 60 points or 0.75% higher. In the United States, the Dow Jones was up 1.6%, the S&P 500 was 1.1% higher, and the Nasdaq rose 1%. This follows the release of fresh U.S. inflation data.

Oil prices fall

ASX 200 energy shares Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) and Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) could have a poor start to the week after oil prices fell on Friday. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price was down 1.4% to US$77.16 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price was down 1.5% to US$81.13 a barrel. Concerns about Chinese demand put pressure on prices.

Buy Bellevue Gold shares

After falling almost 22% on Friday, Goldman Sachs thinks that investors should be buying Bellevue Gold Ltd (ASX: BGL) shares today. According to the note, the broker has retained its buy rating on the gold miner's shares with reduced price target of $1.85 (from $2.15). This implies potential upside of over 28% for investors. It said: "We rate BGL a Buy on: (1) Valuation, where BGL remains relatively underappreciated in our view, at a discount to peers, where while near-term FCF yields are impacted by the accelerated development spend, we see these returning to double digit by FY27E and remaining attractive vs. peers, supporting upside to the outlook for possible future capital returns once the expansion ramps up."

Gold price storms higher

It could be a great start to the week for ASX 200 gold shares Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) after the gold price stormed higher on Friday. According to CNBC, the spot gold price was up 1.2% to US$2,427.9 an ounce. This follows the release of US inflation data which was supportive of rate cuts.

Buy Treasury Wine shares

Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (ASX: TWE) shares are good value according to analysts at Goldman Sachs. This morning, the broker has reaffirmed its buy rating and $14.70 price target on the wine giant's shares. This suggests that the shares of the Penfolds owner could rise 20% from current levels. Looking ahead to its results next month, the broker said: "Expect TWE FY24 results to be a non-event given tight guidance, though 1H25 run-rate should be strong given the soft 1H24 and lapping both DAOU and Penfolds."

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Treasury Wine Estates and Woodside Energy Group. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Goldman Sachs Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Treasury Wine Estates. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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