One day, CBA shares will go down. Here's how to keep it from hurting your portfolio

Don't bank on CBA going up forever.

A woman wearing yellow smiles and drinks coffee while on laptop.

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) share price growth has delivered good returns for shareholders in the past 12 months. CBA shares have risen more than 26% in the last year, plus there have been the dividend payments.

It's been a great period of time for the ASX bank share, but there's a big difference between the returns of the shares compared to the performance of the underlying financials of the bank.

It's rare for a bank the size of CBA to deliver capital growth of more than 20% in one year. Unless earnings grow at the same speed as the share price or faster, the price/earnings (P/E) ratio will increase, and the company will appear more expensive.

In my view, today's CBA share price valuation will either need to be justified by higher earnings or else there could be a pullback. Market volatility is completely normal of course, as there are always different buyers and sellers in the market. But what can we do to protect our portfolios from specific stock risk?

Diversification

I believe it's very easy to create diversification within our portfolios.

Diversification can help lower the risk of being too exposed to a particular business or sector.

If CBA was someone's entire portfolio and it dropped 20%, their portfolio would be worth 20% less.

If CBA was only 10% of a person's portfolio, a 20% decline in the CBA share price would only mean a 2% decline in the portfolio value.

Of course, that doesn't mean spreading your capital across Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC), ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) and National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) because those other banks are in the same industry.

If I were buying individual ASX blue-chip shares, I'd look at names like Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS), Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO), Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES), Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL) and Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (ASX: SOL) because they all offer different industry exposure to CBA shares.

Go global

An even better strategy to achieve diversification and avoid the risks of being overexposed to CBA shares is to invest in exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

ETFs allow us to buy a basket of shares in a single transaction. Each ETF has a different portfolio, so I think it's worthwhile being selective about which fund to go with.

If I already owned a lot of CBA shares, I wouldn't jump to buy Vanguard Australian Shares Index ETF (ASX: VAS) because it has a large allocation to ASX bank shares. I believe there are better options for diversification.

I'd look at globally focused ETFs, which, thanks to the quality of the underlying businesses, can provide both diversification and, hopefully, good returns.

Some of my favourites include VanEck MSCI International Quality ETF (ASX: QUAL), Betashares Global Quality Leaders ETF (ASX: QLTY), BetaShares Global Sustainability Leaders ETF (ASX: ETHI), and Vanguard MSCI Index International Shares ETF (ASX: VGS).

CBA is a great business, but there are plenty of others worth owning too, in my opinion. Choosing compelling global ETFs means we can spread our money across hundreds of businesses.

Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has positions in Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Company Limited. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Company Limited and Wesfarmers. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Coles Group, Telstra Group, Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Company Limited, and Wesfarmers. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Vanguard Msci Index International Shares ETF. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Bank Shares

Contented looking man leans back in his chair at his desk and smiles.
Bank Shares

Major CBA investor reveals why he's all in

This investor described one major reason driving his investment in CBA shares.

Read more »

Young investor sits at desk looking happy after discovering Westpac's dividend reinvestment plan
Bank Shares

Invested $10,000 in Westpac shares 2 years ago? Guess how much you've already banked!

Atop their regular dividend payments, Westpac shares have enjoyed a strong two-year run.

Read more »

Woman calculating dividends on calculator and working on a laptop.
Bank Shares

Buying CBA stock today? Here's the dividend yield you'll get

CBA's yield right now might surprise you.

Read more »

A financial expert or broker looks worried as he checks out a graph showing market volatility.
Bank Shares

How much would the ASX 200 fall if CBA shares returned to 'fair value'?

CBA shares account for 12% of the ASX 200.

Read more »

A woman sits in a cafe wearing a polka dotted shirt and holding a latte in one hand while reading something on a laptop that is sitting on the table in front of her
Dividend Investing

How are these passive income investors earning a 7.5% dividend yield on their surging CBA shares?

CBA shares are proving more lucrative for some passive income investors than others.

Read more »

A woman in a bright yellow jumper looks happily at her yellow piggy bank.
Bank Shares

$10,000 invested in CBA shares in FY25 is now

Let's see whether it was a successful 12 months for bank investors in the last financial year.

Read more »

Woman with spyglass looking toward ocean at sunset.
Bank Shares

What could happen to the big 4 banks in FY26?

What’s in store for the big four banks over the next 12 months?

Read more »

Bank building in a financial district.
Bank Shares

Which is the only ASX 200 bank stock Macquarie expects to outperform in FY 2026?

Macquarie forecasts a tough year ahead for the ASX 200 banks, with only one expected to outperform.

Read more »