Top investment bank downgrades ASX 200 oil stock following trading update

This big oil stock is being punished by investors…

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It certainly hasn't been a great day for ASX 200 stocks this Thursday. At the close of trading, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is down a painful 1.29% and back under 7,900 points. Things didn't go much better for ASX 200 oil stock Ampol Ltd (ASX: ALD).

Ampol shares closed at $33.10 each yesterday afternoon. But this morning, the petroleum refiner and retailer opened at $31.81 and closed today at $32.50 a share, down 1.81% for the day.

This ASX 200 oil stock's disappointing showing comes after Ampol released a half-year trading update to investors before market open this morning.

ASX 200 oil stock disappoints with trading update

Despite Ampol calling its numbers "resilient", the company's update was arguably a veritable sea of red ink. The oil stock told investors that its first-half performance in 2024 lagged 2023's numbers on every metric.

Total sales volume for the six months ending 30 June came in at 13,252 mL, down 5.9% from the 14,081 mL we saw over the same period last year.

Margins at the ASX 200 oil stock's Lytton refinery also fell, dropping from US$10.29 per barrel to US$10.27.

Ampol's oil production at its refineries also dropped by 5.8%, decreasing from 2,974 mL last year to 2,802 mL in 2024.

The ASX 200 oil stock now expects to deliver group operating earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) of between $500-510 million for the half, which would translate to an earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) range of $735-745 million.

So, you can see why investors might be feeling a little disappointed after this trading update was released.

One ASX expert has also expressed an opinion. As reported by the Australian Financial Review (AFR) today, analysts at investment bank RBC Capital Markets have slashed earnings estimates for Ampol following this update.

Calling the trading update "weak", RBC analyst Gordon Ramsay (presumably not related to the chef) reduced his 2024 earnings per share (EPS) estimate by 12% and his 2025 prediction by 11%. These moves were based on lower "earnings expectations for the refining business and for the Z Energy retail business in New Zealand".

Ampol share price snapshot

Today's update was probably the last thing Ampol investors wanted to see. This ASX 200 oil stock has had a tough year in 2024 so far, with the company's shares now down around 10.7% year to date.

The Ampol share price has also gone nowhere over the past 12 months, dropping 1.56% over this period. That compares with a 7.18% gain from the ASX 200 Index. Check that out for yourself below:

Created with Highcharts 11.4.3Ampol + S&P/ASX 200 Price Return (AUD) PriceZoom1M3M6MYTD1Y5Y10YALL25 Jul 202325 Jul 2024Zoom ▾Sep '23Nov '23Jan '24Mar '24May '24Jul '240www.fool.com.au

At the current Ampol share price, this ASX 200 oil stock has a market capitalisation of $7.80 billion, with a trailing dividend yield of 6.57%.

Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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