Why is the BHP share price starting the week with a whimper?

BHP shares are underperforming the benchmark on Monday. But why?

| More on:
a mine worker holds his phone in one hand and a tablet in the other as he stands in front of heavy machinery at a mine site.

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

The BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) share price is sliding today.

Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) mining giant closed Friday trading for $44.39. In late morning trade on Monday, shares are changing hands for $43.82 apiece, down 1.3%.

That sees the big Aussie miner trailing the benchmark, with the ASX 200 down a lesser 0.4% at this same time.

It's not just the BHP share price that's underperforming though. Fortescue Metals Group Ltd (ASX: FMG) shares are down 1.9%, while Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) shares are down 1.5% at this same time.

Here's why the ASX 200 miners are battling headwinds today.

Why is the BHP share price underperforming on Monday?

Most of the selling pressure impacting BHP, Rio Tinto, and Fortescue today appears to be due to the 3% decline in the iron ore price over the weekend. After defying bearish expectations and climbing for most of the first week of July, the iron ore price dipped back to just over US$110 per tonne.

The reason once more looks to be driven by concerns that China's sluggish, steel-hungry property markets have yet to regain any solid growth traction. Coupled with news of growing iron ore stockpiles at China's largest ports, iron ore traders have been favouring their sell buttons.

With iron ore counting as BHP's biggest revenue earner, the BHP share price is joining in that sell-down today.

Indeed, over the half-year to 31 December, the miner reported earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of US$9.7 billion from its iron ore division alone.

In its half-year report, released on 20 February, BHP estimated it will produce between 254 million and 264.5 million tonnes of iron ore in FY 2024.

So any pull back in demand from China, the world's biggest consumer of iron ore, is going to have an impact on the BHP share price.

The miner addressed its own cautious outlook for Chinese iron ore and other commodity demand earlier this year, stating:

The Chinese economy has been volatile since the zero-COVID policy was eased in December 2022…

Throughout the year authorities have acknowledged that additional policies will be needed to support China's economic recovery. For the balance of FY24 and into FY25, the key question remains how effective the policy push will be. Until we see greater coherence between the policies and their effective implementation, our outlook will remain cautious and conditional.

With today's intraday moves factored in, the BHP share price is down 13% in 2024 but remains up 3% over 12 months.

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Resources Shares

A lion leaps in front of a scenic backdrop.
Resources Shares

One thing you may not know about Liontown shares

Here's an interesting – and potentially positive – fact.

Read more »

An engineer takes a break on a staircase and looks out over a huge open pit coal mine as the sun rises in the background.
Resources Shares

Where will BHP shares be in 5 years?

Let’s dig into the company’s growth prospects for the next five years.

Read more »

Miner looking at a tablet.
Resources Shares

Is the rally in ASX 200 iron ore stocks just a short-term bounce?

The iron ore majors have soared since news of China's stimulus.

Read more »

Two miners standing together.
Resources Shares

The Rio Tinto share price soared in September, what's next?

Let’s dig into why the ASX mining share beat the market last month.

Read more »

An engineer takes a break on a staircase and looks out over a huge open pit coal mine as the sun rises in the background.
Resources Shares

How the BHP share price rebounded to smash the benchmark in September

BHP shares leapt 20% from 6 September through to the end of the month.

Read more »

Miner looking at a tablet.
Resources Shares

Are ASX mining shares still trading 'nearer to lows than highs'?

Could the sector be set to rally?

Read more »

Female South32 miner smiling with mining machinery in the background.
Gold

5 ASX 200 mining stocks to buy on Goldman Sachs' new gold price forecast

The gold price has soared 44% this past year, and Goldman Sachs thinks this rally has legs.

Read more »

Image from either construction, mining or the oil industry of a friendly worker.
Resources Shares

Buying ASX 200 mining stocks? Here's why Goldman Sachs says the iron ore price rally is set to fizzle

The iron ore price is up 14% in a week, sending ASX 200 mining stocks soaring.

Read more »