What is the outlook for ASX 200 dividend shares in FY25?

There could be some large dividend payments in the new financial year, despite economic uncertainty.

Man holding a calculator with Australian dollar notes, symbolising dividends.

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

The economic environment is uncertain for two of the ASX's largest sectors – mining and banking. I'm going to run through what the dividend projections are for FY25 with some of the largest S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) dividend shares.

The ASX bank share sector is facing rising arrears amid a high cost of living and elevated interest rates. For example, in the recent Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) update for the third quarter of FY24, CBA said its arrears of home loans that were overdue by at least 90 days increased from 0.44% at March 2023 to 0.61% at March 2024.

According to Trading Economics, ASX iron ore shares, such as BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) and Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG), are facing uncertain demand from China. The Asian superpower's housing construction sector continues to experience difficulties while Chinese iron ore production is growing.

With that in mind, let's look at how big the dividend payments could be in FY25.

Dividend projections

The following forecasts are based on estimates on Commsec. Remember, forecasts are just educated guesses by analysts – the payouts could be smaller or larger than projected.

Owners of CBA shares could receive a grossed-up dividend yield of 5.1%.

BHP could pay a grossed-up dividend yield of 7.6%.

National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) is projected to pay a grossed-up dividend yield of 6.7%.

ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) is forecast to pay a grossed-up dividend yield of 8.3%.

Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) is predicted to pay a grossed-up dividend yield of 7.9%.

Fortescue is forecast to pay a grossed-up dividend yield of 9.2%.

Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) is projected to pay a grossed-up dividend yield of 8.1%.

Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) is predicted to pay a grossed-up dividend yield of around 4%.

Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES) is forecast to pay a grossed-up dividend yield of 4.6%.

Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) is projected to pay a grossed-up dividend yield of 7.7%.

Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS) is predicted to pay a grossed-up dividend yield of 7.5%.

Is this a good time to invest?

The ASX 200 share market has performed strongly since the end of October 2023, rising by 14%.

I don't think we can call the ASX bank shares good value, considering arrears are rising and competitive pressures remain. And I'm not bullish about the current iron ore price, so ASX iron ore shares don't strike me as bargains.

Currently, of the ASX 200 dividend shares I've mentioned, I'd call Telstra shares good value, and I'd also be happy to own Wesfarmers shares and Macquarie shares because of their ability to compound earnings over the long term.

Should you invest $1,000 in Allkem right now?

Before you buy Allkem shares, consider this:

Motley Fool investing expert Scott Phillips just revealed what he believes are the 5 best stocks for investors to buy right now... and Allkem wasn't one of them.

The online investing service he’s run for over a decade, Motley Fool Share Advisor, has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.*

And right now, Scott thinks there are 5 stocks that may be better buys...

See The 5 Stocks *Returns as of 30 April 2025

Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has positions in Fortescue. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group and Wesfarmers. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group, Telstra Group, and Wesfarmers. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Dividend Investing

Joyful woman at a beach on the Gold Coast with her arms spread out.
How to invest

How to bank $10,000 a year in passive income from these 3 top ASX shares

Here’s how I’d go about building a $10,000 passive income stream from these top ASX stocks.

Read more »

A woman relaxes on a yellow couch with a book and cuppa, and looks pensively away as she contemplates the joy of earning passive income.
ETFs

3 ASX ETFs to buy for passive income in May

Don't like stock picking but want passive income? Here are three funds that could help you.

Read more »

A businesswoman on the phone is shocked as she looks at her watch, she's running out of time.
Bank Shares

Want to bag the next Westpac shares dividend? Better be quick…

Westpac will pay an interim dividend of 76 cents per share next month.

Read more »

supermarket asx shares represented by shopping trolley in supermarket aisle
Dividend Investing

Should I buy Coles shares for their reliable passive income?

We take a look at Coles’ passive income credentials and the potential for share price gains.

Read more »

Ecstatic woman looking at her phone outside with her fist pumped.
Dividend Investing

Buy Woolworths and these ASX dividend shares

Analysts are tipping the supermarket giant and these shares as buys. But why?

Read more »

Man holding fifty Australian Dollar banknote in his hands, symbolising dividends, symbolising dividends.
Dividend Investing

This ASX 200 stock is planning to pay a 25% dividend yield this month

This stock is rewarding its shareholders handsomely. Here's what is happening.

Read more »

Middle age caucasian man smiling confident drinking coffee at home.
Dividend Investing

Buy these ASX dividend stocks to supercharge your passive income

Analysts believe that these buy-rated stocks will provide income investors with some great yields in the near term.

Read more »

Man holding out Australian dollar notes, symbolising dividends.
Dividend Investing

3 ASX shares yielding over 7% for your portfolio

Analysts are expecting big yields from these buy-rated shares in the near term.

Read more »