Why QBE shares could deliver huge returns for investors that buy them today

Goldman Sachs thinks this stock could offer big returns

| More on:
Two smiling work colleagues discuss an investment or business plan at their office.

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

QBE Insurance Group Ltd (ASX: QBE) shares have been in fine form over the last 12 months.

During this time, the insurance giant's shares have stormed 22% higher.

This is almost triple the return of the ASX 200 index over the same period.

Can QBE shares keep rising?

The good news for investors is that it isn't too late to invest according to analysts at Goldman Sachs.

According to a note, its analysts have retained their buy rating and $20.90 price target on the company's shares.

Based on its current share price of $18.32, this implies potential upside of 14% for investors over the next 12 months.

In addition, the broker is forecasting dividend yields of 5%+ each year through to at least FY 2026. This boosts the total potential 12-month return to approximately 19%.

If this proves accurate, it would turn a $10,000 investment into approximately $11,900 if you reinvest the dividends.

Why is the broker bullish?

Goldman notes that the insurance giant has recently held a number of investor meetings. It was pleased with what management said, highlighting that it is confident in can deliver a combined operating ratio (COR) of 95% in North America by 2025. As a reminder, anything below 100% is profitable for insurers.

In light of this, the broker believes that there is upside risk to consensus COR estimates. It said:

In this context, we flag 1) Upside risk to FY25 consensus COR of 92.8% (VA) – we see <92.5% as possible reflecting improvement from North America non core + organic upside. 2) North America non core run off we think could support ~0.7% -1.2% improvement to Group COR alone. 3) Organic trends also suggest possible underlying COR expansion into FY25.

Goldman also highlights a number of other key items and reasons why it thinks QBE shares could re-rate higher from here. It adds:

Rate increases earning through FY25 versus moderating claims inflation expected to remain supportive into FY25 – 1Q24 Group rate was 7.3% versus inflation assumption of 5% for FY24. b) Reinsurance markets increasingly more positive with commentary from 1 June renewals suggest lower rates (particularly in upper layers) which are supportive of direct insurer margins and positive read into 2025. c) QBE's 2024 perils allowance was rebased to an 80% probability of sufficiency (out of the last 10 years) perhaps suggesting less pressure into FY25 and perils growth more in line with book. Perils experience to date has been below expectations. d) All in, there appears to be strong COR tailwinds to offset moderating yield pressures which is supportive of ROE / Valuation into FY25. 4) Valuation comparison versus global peers also suggests upside for QBE across P/E and P/B particularly in context of strong ROE.

Should you invest $1,000 in Appen Limited right now?

Before you buy Appen Limited shares, consider this:

Motley Fool investing expert Scott Phillips just revealed what he believes are the 5 best stocks for investors to buy right now... and Appen Limited wasn't one of them.

The online investing service he’s run for over a decade, Motley Fool Share Advisor, has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.*

And right now, Scott thinks there are 5 stocks that may be better buys...

See The 5 Stocks *Returns as of 30 April 2025

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Goldman Sachs Group. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Financial Shares

Woman and man calculating a dividend yield.
Financial Shares

Here's what Macquarie thinks QBE shares are worth after reviewing 18 global insurers

Macquarie has just issued a new note on QBE shares.

Read more »

A woman sits at her computer with her hand to her mouth and a contemplative smile on her face as she reads about the performance of Allkem shares on her computer
Financial Shares

Should I buy the dip on Macquarie shares now?

Atop their reliable passive income, Macquarie shares offer growth potential, according to this leading expert.

Read more »

Nervous customer in discussions at a bank.
Financial Shares

Guess which ASX 200 bank stock just crashed 19% on shock news

Investors have been hitting the sell button in a panic this afternoon.

Read more »

Two CEOs shaking hands on a deal.
Financial Shares

This ASX 300 stock is jumping on surprise merger news

This stock could be having a very big makeover.

Read more »

Man smiling at a laptop because of a rising share price.
Financial Shares

How this quality ASX 200 stock is 'ideally placed' for years of growth

A leading expert expects more outperformance from this high-flying ASX 200 stock.

Read more »

Cheerful boyfriend showing mobile phone to girlfriend in dining room. They are spending leisure time together at home and planning their financial future.
Financial Shares

Looking for financial stocks outside the big 4 banks?

With the financial sector down to start the year, could these stocks provide upside?

Read more »

A male investor sits at his desk looking at his laptop screen holding his hand to his chin pondering whether to buy Macquarie shares
Financial Shares

This leading broker just upgraded AMP shares to 'outperform'. Here's why

This top broker just turned bullish on AMP shares. But why?

Read more »

A woman sits at her computer with her chin resting on her hand as she contemplates her next potential investment.
Financial Shares

Up 53% in a year, why is this ASX 200 financial stock leaping higher again today?

Investors are sending the ASX 200 financial stock soaring on Wednesday. Let’s see why.

Read more »