This top broker says the Pilbara Minerals share price is going to crash 35%

This ASX lithium share is significantly overvalued, according to this broker.

| More on:
Miner and company person analysing results of a mining company.

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

One of the leading brokers in Australia has forecast that the Pilbara Minerals Ltd (ASX: PLS) share price will fall more than 30% over the next 12 months.

This negative outlook comes after the ASX lithium share's valuation recently recovered some of its losses, rising 13% in the past two months, as the chart below shows.

Created with Highcharts 11.4.3Pilbara Minerals PriceZoom1M3M6MYTD1Y5Y10YALL21 May 202321 May 2024Zoom ▾Jul '23Sep '23Nov '23Jan '24Mar '24May '24Jul '23Jul '23Oct '23Oct '23Jan '24Jan '24Apr '24Apr '24www.fool.com.au

However, UBS believes the ASX mining share is priced too highly in the current environment.

Negative Pilbara Minerals share price target

A price target is where a broker thinks the share price will be in 12 months from the date of the broker's note.

UBS' price target, given in April, on the ASX lithium share is just $2.70. That implies a possible fall of 35% over the next year, which would be a substantial decline.

The broker only expects Pilbara Minerals to generate net profit after tax (NPAT) of $353 million in FY24 and $366 million in FY25, compared to the $2.39 billion NPAT it generated in FY23.

UBS also suggested the business will see negative free cash flow in FY24 and FY25 as the company invests heavily in initiatives to lift production, including the P1000 project.

Why is the broker pessimistic?

UBS believes the current Pilbara Minerals share price implies a lithium price far above the current spot price and the longer-term forecast.

The broker's estimate for spodumene concentrate for FY25 is US$1,125 per tonne and believes the market is pricing in around US$1,710 per tonne. UBS' long-term lithium price forecast from 2030 is US$1,400 per tonne. Therefore, UBS is implying there is a disconnect between Pilbara Minerals' actual profit potential and how much profit the market is implying the miner can generate.

However, the broker noted the ASX lithium share is on track to reach the high end of its FY24 guidance of between 660kt and 690kt, and that the miner "continues to execute well on production and growth plans."

UBS believes Pilbara Minerals' balance sheet is "still strong and a competitive strength", though the cash balance is declining. The broker expects the cash balance to finish FY25 at $1.25 billion, down from $1.78 billion at 31 March 2024.

Pilbara Minerals share price valuation snapshot

According to UBS' forecasts, the ASX lithium share is priced at more than 34x FY25's estimated earnings at its current level. The valuation then improves to 23x FY26's estimated earnings, which is still quite high for a large miner.

Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Energy Shares

Happy coal miner.
Share Gainers

Up 75% this week, why is this ASX All Ords stock rocketing again today?

Investors are piling into this ASX 300 stock on Wednesday. But why?

Read more »

Man pointing at a blue rising share price graph.
Share Gainers

Guess which ASX 300 stock just rocketed 43% on big news!

Investors are piling into this ASX 300 stock on Wednesday. But why?

Read more »

A male oil and gas mechanic wearing a white hardhat walks along a steel platform above a series of gas pipes in a gas plant
Energy Shares

4 reasons to buy Santos shares right now

A leading expert forecasts Santos shares and dividends are set to grow. But why?

Read more »

Man with rocket wings which have flames coming out of them.
Share Gainers

Guess which ASX 200 stock has rocketed 86% since April?

This sky rocketing ASX 200 stock continues to defy short sellers. But how?

Read more »

A miner in visibility gear and hard hat looks seriously at an iPad device in a field where oil mining equipment is visible in the background.
Energy Shares

4 ASX 200 energy shares making big moves today as OPEC's oil production set to surge

ASX energy shares, including Woodside and Santos, are making big moves today. But not all in the same direction.

Read more »

Worker on a laptop at an oil and gas pipeline.
Energy Shares

Woodside share price charging higher on North West Shelf approval

Woodside has been working more than six years to gain an extension for its North West Shelf gas project.

Read more »

Gas and oil plant with a inspector in the background.
Energy Shares

Does Macquarie rate Origin Energy shares a buy, hold or sell?

The broker has given its verdict on the energy giant. Let's see what it is saying.

Read more »

An oil worker in front of a pumpjack using a tablet PC.
Energy Shares

Ord Minnett tips Woodside shares to rise 15%+

Market-beating returns could be on offer from this energy giant.

Read more »