Top broker says this beaten-up ASX 200 stock could have further to fall

This stock could see more suffering amid major tax pain.

| More on:
falling infrastructure asx share price represented by disheartened looking builder on work site

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

The Lendlease Group (ASX: LLC) share price could be in for more misery after the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) stock's tax pain. It's currently down by 3.5% in initial reaction to an ATO tax bill.

The construction and real estate business has announced a painful amended tax assessment which is likely to hurt earnings.

Lendlease ATO update

On 10 May 2024, the ATO issued Lendlease with a 'statement of audit position' and an amended income tax assessment relating to the ATO audit of the partial sale of Lendlease's retirement living business in FY18.

The amended assessment is for $112.1 million and is made up of three parts.

First, a $62.4 million capital gains tax is coming from the exit of the retirement living trust, a "one-off event that only applies to the 2018 transaction".

Second, there's $25.2 million of additional tax from the sale of 25% of the units in the joint venture trust.

Third, the ATO has calculated $24.5 million of interest.

However, Lendlease is hopeful of being able to avoid paying the interest based on the ATO's previous written undertaking (in February 2020) that no interest or penalties would be applied to FY18.

Why has the ATO decided Lendlease owes a lot more tax?

The ASX 200 stock explained it calculated the gain on the sale by including the liabilities the business took on at the time of the purchase of the assets in its tax cost base. Lendlease considers this to be "in accordance with the lance and consistent with the ATO's tax ruling on the retirement living industry."

The ATO has decided those certain liabilities assumed by Lendlease should be excluded from the tax cost base from the calculated gain. The ATO adjustments don't relate to deductions claimed by Lendlease.

The ASX 200 stock said it "proactively contacted the ATO to review the tax treatment applied to the 2018 sale eight months prior to submitting its tax return and also obtained independent advice before lodgement."

More tax pain to come?

Since the initial part sale of the retirement living business in 2018, Lendlease has sold down two more tranches of the units in the joint venture trust in FY21 and FY22, totalling 50%.

The ATO hasn't (yet) issued amended assessments about those additional sales.

If the ATO applies the same treatment to both of those partial sales, the ASX 200 stock has estimated it may mean another $50 million of additional tax, excluding any interest.  

Broker views on the ASX 200 stock

According to reporting by The Australian, the broker Citi thinks this could lead to another profit downgrade for the business. News of this tax bill broke before the business announced the news, and Citi commented earlier:

If confirmed, we believe this could potentially turn into yet another earnings downgrade for FY24, after the downgrade in February 2024.

The retirement sale profits initially seem to have been taken above the line in FY22, and the treatment of this potential tax bill could also be above the line.

While investors are looking ahead to the end of May investor day, we believe this announcement could be a further negative and potentially result in negative share price performance.

The Lendlease share price is already down close to 20% in 2024, as we can see on the chart below.

Citigroup is an advertising partner of The Ascent, a Motley Fool company. Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Real Estate Shares

Three smiling corporate people examine a model of a new building complex.
Real Estate Shares

Bell Potter names the best ASX real estate shares to buy in FY25

There could be 'significant value' on offer in the sector right now.

Read more »

A woman sits at her computer with her chin resting on her hand as she contemplates her next potential investment.
Real Estate Shares

ASX 200 stock rallies as monopoly remains intact

This company is turning out to hold a monopoly that's too hard for government to crack.

Read more »

Real estate agent and client exploring property.
Real Estate Shares

Are ASX real estate shares building towards a better FY25?

Here’s the outlook for the ASX real estate sector.

Read more »

Three smiling corporate people examine a model of a new building complex.
Real Estate Shares

3 ASX 300 real estate shares with attractive dividend yields

It's dividend day for these three property players.

Read more »

Woman with a moving box on her head.
Opinions

1 ASX small-cap stock that could benefit from the rental crisis

Noticed the rental market shortage? This may be an opportunity for this ASX small-cap share.

Read more »

An industrial warehouse manager sits at a desk in a warehouse looking at his computer while the Centuria Industrial share price rises
Real Estate Shares

Guess which ASX 200 co-founder just sold $33 million worth of company shares

A major sale has just occurred at one of the ASX’s market darlings.

Read more »

A man and a woman stand on an external balcony in a dense city environment filled with high rise buildings and commercial properties. The man is pointing up at a high rise building and the woman is looking on.
Real Estate Shares

Up 73% in a year, this surging ASX 200 stock just hit another all-time high

This property share has skyrocketed, with the company recently upgrading its FY24 guidance for a second time.

Read more »

Smiling elderly couple looking at their superannuation account, symbolising retirement.
Earnings Results

Why is this ASX 200 stock avoiding the market selloff and pushing higher?

Not all shares are falling with the market on Thursday.

Read more »