Are Qantas shares too expensive at over $6?

Is it too late to buy? Let's find out what analysts are saying.

| More on:
A woman reaches her arms to the sky as a plane flies overhead at sunset.

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Qantas Airways Limited (ASX: QAN) shares have been on a roll in recent weeks.

Since early March, the airline operator's shares have ascended by an impressive 24%.

This leaves them trading above the $6.00 mark for the first time this year.

Does this make its shares expensive? Or can they keep climbing? Let's see what analysts are saying.

Are Qantas shares too expensive?

The good news for investors is that you may not be too late to the Qantas party.

In fact, if one leading broker is on the money with its recommendation, there could be even larger gains to come for investors buying at today's price.

According to a recent note out of Goldman Sachs, its analysts have retained their buy rating and $8.05 price target on the airline operator's shares.

Based on the current Qantas share price of $6.21, this implies potential upside of 30% for investors over the next 12 months.

And while the broker is not expecting any dividends this year, they could be on the horizon. The broker is forecasting a 30 cents per share dividend in FY 2025. This represents a very attractive 4.8% dividend yield.

Why is it bullish?

Goldman believes the market is undervaluing the company based on its improved earnings capacity following the transformation of its business following the COVID crisis.

Despite these improvements, the company's valuation remains below pre-COVID times. It explains:

Qantas Airways is the flagship carrier of Australia and is the largest airline in Australia by capacity share, serving destinations domestically and internationally. As a key beneficiary of the re-opening of the world post-COVID, we expect the airline's traffic capacity to return to 95% of pre-COVID levels by FY24e, with the airline's earnings capacity (EPS) expected to exceed that of pre-COVID levels by ~52%. We forecast a ~24% FY19-24e cumulative uplift in unit revenues (c. 4.4%pa), and ~50% drop-through of QAN's A$1bn+ structural cost-out program. QAN's current market capitalisation and enterprise value are 10% below and 11% below pre-COVID levels.

Goldman then adds:

As such, we believe QAN is not priced for a generic recovery, let alone prospects for improved earnings capacity. We continue to see upside associated with substantially improved MT earnings capacity.

Overall, this could make Qantas shares a good option if you're looking for exposure to the travel sector.

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Goldman Sachs Group. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Travel Shares

Woman on a tablet waiting in for her flight in an airport and looking through a window.
Travel Shares

Virgin Australia vs Qantas shares: Which is the best buy?

Competition in Australia's aviation market is heating up.

Read more »

A female cabin crew member on a place looks like she has a headache.
Travel Shares

Why this expert is calling time on Virgin Australia shares

A leading expert is calling time on Virgin Australia shares. But why?

Read more »

Couple at an airport waiting for their flight.
Travel Shares

Macquarie increases price target for Qantas shares

Qantas shares hit a new all-time high today.

Read more »

Happy woman trying to close suitcase.
Travel Shares

Guess which ASX travel stock Macquarie just named as its top pick with 32% upside?

While Macquarie sees value across the sector, it named a clear favourite. 

Read more »

A man in a dark blue suit walks through an airport past floor-to-ceiling windows with a Qantas plane flying in the distance
Travel Shares

Up 16% this year, does Macquarie rate Corporate Travel Management shares a buy, hold or sell?

Does the travel stock have further to fly?

Read more »

A group of young people lean over the rails overlooking Sydney's Circular Quay and check out the sights of the city around them.
Travel Shares

Can these two battered ASX travel shares bounce back?

Ahead of important tourism data this week, these two travel companies could be buy low candidates. 

Read more »

Man sitting in a plane looking through a window and working on a laptop.
Travel Shares

Did Flight Centre, Air New Zealand, or Qantas shares fly highest in FY25?

How did these ASX travel shares perform last financial year?

Read more »

Man waiting for his flight and looking at his phone.
Travel Shares

The Virgin Australia share price just slipped back below IPO levels. Should I buy shares today?

A leading expert offers his forecast on the struggling Virgin Australia share price.

Read more »