2023 was a pretty special year for Ampol Ltd (ASX: ALD) shares and the investors who owned them. For one, the year just gone saw this ASX 200 energy share rise by a rosy 27.8% – a gain that would delight any investor.
But Ampol shares shone on the income front as well. The company doled out a record level of dividend cash over 2023. The March final dividend of $1.05 per share, fully franked, was a huge increase over 2022's corresponding 41 cents per share payment.
It was the opposite for the company's September interim dividend though. Ampol paid out 95 cents per share (also fully franked) back in September, which was a drop from the $1.20 per share investors bagged at the same time in 2022.
Even so, Ampol's ordinary dividend totalled $2 per share over 2023, which was a big increase on 2022's total of $1.61. And we haven't even got to the special dividend. Yep, Ampol shares dispatched a special cash dividend in March 2023 as well.
This payout was worth another fully franked 50 cents per share, bringing the company's total payouts to $2.50. Both the $2 in ordinary dividend and the $2.50 in total dividends are records for Ampol in terms of passive income for shareholders.
Combined, those payments give the Ampol share price a trailing dividend yield of 6.78%. That grosses up to an impressive 9.69% yield with the value of those full franking credits.
However, these payments all reflect the past. As with any ASX dividend share, investors cannot just assume that this yield will hold over the coming 12 months. But should they? Let's discuss whether Ampol will continue to be the divided beast it was in 2023.
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Will Ampol shares shower investors with dividends again in 2024?
Well, it seems unlikely that Ampol will treat investors to the same stunning dividend in 2024 as it did in 2023.
Why? Well, the company's special dividend that so dramatically boosted shareholder income last year appears to be something of a one-off.
At the time, Ampol told investors that this special dividend was a result of distributed "proceeds from asset sales to shareholders". These asset sales presumably include the likes of Ampol's NZ$522 million sale of Gull to Allegro Funds Pty Ltd in 2022.
So it's probably safe to say investors shouldn't be baking in an expectation of another $2.50 in dividends in 2024.
But that doesn't mean Ampol shares won't be generous dividend payers this year.
CommSec consensus dividend forecasts are currently predicting that Ampol will still be able to fund a total of $1.80 in dividends per share over 2024. That drops to $1.63 in 2025.
Of course, those are just projections. But if accurate, they would see the Ampol share price trading on forward yields of 4.88% and 4.42% today. Although that's no 6.78% yield, it's also certainly nothing to turn one's nose up against.
