Last week ASX lithium stocks raced higher amid hopes that the battery material price rout was over.
But is that really the case? Is the worst now over for Core Lithium Ltd (ASX: CXO), Liontown Resources Ltd (ASX: LTR), and Pilbara Minerals Ltd (ASX: PLS)?
Goldman Sachs has been reviewing lithium prices and has just given its verdict on where prices are going in the coming years.
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Lithium price forecast
Firstly, here's how spot prices are looking this week compared to a week ago:
- Lithium carbonate – China: US$13,009 per tonne (last week: US$14,655)
- Lithium hydroxide – China: US$12,511 per tonne (last week: US$12,553)
- Spodumene 6%: US$1,380 per tonne (last week: US$1,380)
As you can see above, the lithium carbonate price has fallen sharply since last week, whereas the lithium hydroxide price has only weakened modestly and the spodumene 6% price has been flat.
But where next from here? Let's see what Goldman is forecasting for lithium prices out as far as 2026.
- Lithium carbonate – China:
- 2024: US$13,377 per tonne
- 2025: US$11,000 per tonne
- 2026: US$16,883 per tonne
- Lithium hydroxide – China: US$12,511 per tonne (from US$12,553)
- 2024: US$14,263 per tonne
- 2025: US$12,500 per tonne
- 2026: US$18,571 per tonne
- Spodumene 6%:
- 2024: US$1,250 per tonne
- 2025: US$800 per tonne
- 2026: US$1,126 per tonne
Will prices return to former highs?
While there's always scope for lithium prices to rise to abnormally high levels again in the future if demand outstrips supply, Goldman highlights that its forecasts for the coming years are largely in line with its long-term expectations.
It expects long-term prices to be as follows:
- Lithium carbonate: US$15,000 per tonne
- Lithium hydroxide: US$16,500 per tonne
- Spodumene 6%: US$1,000 per tonne
Forecasting commodity prices is notoriously difficult and a lot can change in a short period of time. However, it is worth noting that Goldman has been spot on with its previous calls on lithium, so it would be brave to bet against it.
