It's safe to say that the Qantas Airways Limited (ASX: QAN) share price has had a horrible year. Things were going so well for the national carrier until about halfway through the year. Qantas shares were riding high and looked set to break the $7 mark for the first time since 2019.
Between 1 January and 1 June, the airline stock was up an impressive 14.3%.
But then things started to go off the rails.
CEO Alan Joyce departed the airline prematurely following a class action lawsuit related to cancelled flights during the COVID pandemic, as well as legal action brought by the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) for allegedly selling tickets for cancelled flights.
Then there was the High Court judgement that found Qantas had illegally sacked almost 1,700 employees.
By mid-October, Qantas shares had fallen more than 30% to a new 52-week low of $4.67.
As it stands, those shares have recovered somewhat and closed at $5.40 yesterday.
But after this year's drama, what could 2024 possibly hold in store for the embattled airline?
Image source: Getty Images
Will 2024 be kinder to Qantas shares?
Well, it's difficult to make share price predictions at the best of times. But this one is especially tricky, given the still-unknown impacts of the brand damage the airline has suffered this year.
Most Australians have been disappointed, to say the least, in Qantas' recent behaviour, as its management has acknowledged. However, the company still maintains a strong position in the market, and we've yet to determine whether its reputational hit will translate into a financial one.
One factor to watch will be fuel prices. One of Qantas' largest costs is jet fuel. Earlier this year, oil prices were trading high by historic levels. But over the past couple of months, oil has conspicuously fallen in price. This should give the company a major boost as we head into the travel-heavy holiday period.
But let's check out what an expert reckons. As my Fool colleague covered earlier this week, ASX broker Morgans is bullish on the Qantas share price heading into 2024. It has recently given the airline an add rating alongside a $7.30 share price target.
That would be a massive recovery from where the shares are today if accurate.
Here's some of what Morgans had to say about its optimism:
QAN is trading at a material discount compared to pre-COVID multiples, despite having structurally higher earnings, a much stronger balance sheet, a better domestic market position, a higher returning International business and more diversification (stronger Loyalty/Freight earnings).
The strong pent-up demand to travel post-COVID should result in a healthy demand environment for some time, underpinning further earnings growth over FY24/25.
So no doubt shareholders will appreciate that outlook. But let's wait and see what happens.
