2023 has been a helluva year so far.
I say 'so far' because, based on what we've been through, I'm not prepared to rule out one final twist in the tale.
I'm not expecting one – no-one knows what the future will bring – but would you really be surprised if there was?
On the other hand, 2020, 2021 and 2022 weren't exactly boring, predictable years, either.
In some ways, 2023 was just an extension of what those years had already unleashed – inflation, interest rates, geopolitical conflict and instability – so we can't really claim to have been surprised.
Perhaps, in some ways, it was the sheer exhausting extension of those things, and the uncertainty about when they'd end, that might just be the defining experience of 2023.
As the year starts to wind down, we're hopeful that inflation has peaked.
We're not daring to hope that interest rates have peaked, though it's a possibility.
And as for geopolitics and regional conflict? We started the year with a war underway in Ukraine, and ended it with that war ongoing, and a new one in the Middle East.
Honestly, it can feel pretty grim.
But then, which years don't?
Actually, we know which ones don't. Years like 2019, 2007 and 2000, when we lived in blissful ignorance of COVID, the GFC and the attacks on the World Trade Centre, respectively, just around the corner.
In other words?
In other words, we're usually either going through a crisis, or waiting (unawares) for one to start.
But lest this seem like a pessimistic tone to strike as we prepare to turn the next page of the calendar, it's anything but.
Oh, I don't want to ignore the suffering that many people are enduring right now. It's awful and sometimes hard to imagine. Frankly, we're not doing enough to help people on almost any of those fronts, and that's maddening at times.
But here's the thing: without wanting to lessen the reality of that suffering, it's also true that the ASX is up probably 8-9% this year so far (5% before dividends), and the US S&P 500 Index (SP: .INX) has gained 21%.
And it's true that small, regular improvements in our lives continue to be made. When I started at The Motley Fool in 2011, we didn't have Skype, Zoom, or Google Drive. We used an in-house email sending system. The iPhone 4 had only just been released. Netflix wouldn't arrive in Australia for another four years.
There are similar things happening, right now. Some we don't know about. Some have launched, but their impact is likely still small.
And then there's Artificial Intelligence.
Meanwhile, cars keep getting safer and more efficient. TVs keep getting cheaper. We're making (slow) strides to improving the environment. And government services cover more of our needs.
It's what I like to call 'imperfect progress'. And it happens relatively consistently, despite the – good or bad – headlines.
As a planet, we'll almost certainly finish 2023 in a better place than we started it. Not because we have nothing to fix or improve, but because we've consistently fixed and improved things as we've gone.
Yes, we've broken other things – it's the nature of humanity – but we're moving in the right direction, overall.
I tell you all this because I think it's important not to conflate important-but-temporary setbacks with the more general and overwhelming arc of progress.
Which is how I'm thinking about 2024.
If we're lucky, inflation will keep coming down. But it may not.
If we're lucky, rates might fall sometime next year. But they may not.
If we're lucky, the current wars will end. But they may not.
But I don't think we'll need luck for progress to continue, overall.
And whether the stock market is miserable, exuberant or somewhere in between, our listed companies will continue to do their best to gain and keep more customers, keep costs down, and invent new products and new solutions.
I wouldn't be at all surprised if next year is another volatile one.
The economy is sputtering, consumer spending is down, and people are worried.
On the other hand, some stocks seem pretty cheap, and we might be past the peak for inflation, and at or near the peak for rates. If the stock market does look forward, it might well find a recovery in its sights… and shares might rally.
Overall, though, no-one knows, me included, what'll happen during one arbitrary trip around the sun.
What I do know is that economies have grown, and share markets have boomed, over the last dozen or so decades.
No, not in a straight line. And no, not every year.
But overall, and over time.
I think you bet against that at your (financial) peril.
Fool on!
