Last month, I discussed the prospects of the CSL Limited (ASX: CSL) share price reaching $300 before Christmas. Back then, on 17 November, CSL shares were going for $258.21. Today, those same shares are asking $266.02 at the time of writing, so we've made some progress.
But, CSL has just over three weeks to get to that magic $300 mark – in what would be a rise of almost 13%. I said it then, and I'll say it again now, I doubt this will happen, although stranger things have happened.
So if CSL is not destined to be a $300 share by Christmas, when will it be?
The milestone $300 would not be new territory for this ASX 200 healthcare stock. CSL shares first clocked $300 back in early 2020. By February of that year, the company had hit its still-reigning all-time high of just over $340 a share.
But it hasn't reached those kinds of heights since. So perhaps the stock is primed for a breakout.
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Is the CSL share price getting to $300 anytime soon?
Well, making share price predictions for any ASX share is a fraught exercise. After all, a large part of what determines a company's share price is the earnings multiple investors are willing to pay for it at any given moment. CSL has traded relatively rich for a long time.
Earlier this year, the company had a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of over 45. But today, thanks in large part to a healthy bump in earnings in 2023, that P/E ratio has come down to 38.7 at present.
If investors wanted to push it back up over 45, then we could well see CSL shares with a '3' in front of them soon.
If you ask me, I would say that the best shot for CSL to get back over $300 will be its next earnings report. The company is next due to report to investors on 14 February next year. Say CSL can pull a Valentine's Day gift out of its hat by showing it can successfully navigate a potentially rising Australian dollar. That might be its best shot at $300 for the next little while.
Remember, CSL reports its earnings in US dollars, but its shares are priced in the local currency. Thus, if the Aussie dollar appreciates in value against the greenback, we could see its earnings (and dividends) fall in Australian dollar terms.
Saying that, my Fool colleague Bernd reported just yesterday that a strategist at ASX broker Citi has named CSL as one of the most likely beneficiaries of a rising Aussie dollar.
ASX broker calls a $334 price
But let's take a look at what another broker is saying about CSL's share price trajectory.
As we also discussed yesterday, ASX broker Morgan Stanley has just retained its buy rating on the CSL share price. Morgan Stanley has a 12-month sharp price target of $334 on CSL right now. That's thanks to expected growth in the company's plasma volumes.
So if this broker is to be believed, CSL will comfortably be back over $300 by this time next year. Let's see if that does indeed come to pass.
