27% slide, but this ASX 200 stock has 3 catalysts coming

Even market darlings can see their share price stall or plunge. One expert reckons this example is a buying opportunity.

| More on:
a man sits in a home environment on a sofa while writing in a book with a pen, a plant on the table nearby and curtains open in the background.

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Sometimes even S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) market darlings just can't make their share price budge upwards.

IDP Education Ltd (ASX: IEL) is a case in point.

The international student placement and English testing provider has had the adulation of the professional investors community the past couple of years.

The theory was that after COVID-19 stamped in with a sudden and rude interruption to business, IDP Education would bathe in earnings glory in the post-pandemic world.

Unfortunately it hasn't quite worked out that way.

The shares are now trading about 40% lower than they did two years ago, and more than 27% under the peak in February this year. 

So what's doing?

Upside to margin and earnings growth

If you ask Fairmont Equities managing director Michael Gable, IDP shares are a bargain waiting to be added to your portfolio.

He recently cited three possible catalysts that could put a rocket under the ASX 200 stock.

First factor is what the market has been expecting for years — a revival in international student placement volumes.

Secondly, there's the English testing (IELTS) business.

"A strong competitive position in IELTS, where pricing power remains," said Gable on the Fairmont blog.

"This provided upside to group margin as IELTS volumes recover towards the company's target growth rate of high single-digit over the medium term."

Thirdly, Gable feels like there is 12% to 18% upside to the market's earnings growth forecasts.

"This is due to the likelihood of IDP Education using its under-geared balance sheet position and/or re-investing free cash to pursue merger and acquisitions."

IDP Education's dominant position in its sector means it has superior pricing power.

"During FY23, average student placement fees increased +7%. This growth was driven by commission rate increases and higher tuition fees.

"The company noted improved conversion rates from the use of artificial intelligence and lead indicators remain at record highs, with leads +26%, applicants +40% and course enrolments +53%. These trends underpin the expectation for further pricing growth."

Gable's peers mostly agree with his bullishness.

CMC Markets currently shows nine out of 14 analysts that cover IDP Education rate the ASX 200 stock as a buy.

Motley Fool contributor Tony Yoo has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Idp Education. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Idp Education. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Consumer Staples & Discretionary Shares

A warehouse worker is standing next to a shelf and using a digital tablet.
Consumer Staples & Discretionary Shares

Wesfarmers share price dips amid strategy day for investors

What's ahead for this diversified conglomerate?

Read more »

A man looks a little perplexed as he holds his hand to his head as if thinking about something as he stands in the aisle of a supermarket.
Consumer Staples & Discretionary Shares

Should I buy Woolworths shares today?

Woolworths shares have gained far less than Coles shares over the past year. Is that about to change?

Read more »

A woman sits at her home computer with baby on her lap, and the winning ticket in her hand.
Consumer Staples & Discretionary Shares

Which 'enduring high-quality business' has become a forgotten ASX 200 stock?

Fundie says this ASX 200 consumer discretionary stock has been flying under investors' radar.

Read more »

A young man sitting at an outside table uses a card to pay for his online shopping.
Consumer Staples & Discretionary Shares

Why is the Kogan share price crashing 12%?

Profits are down at this ecommerce company during the second half.

Read more »

A woman looks at a tablet device while in the aisles of a hardware style store amid stacked boxes on shelves representing Bunnings and the Wesfarmers share price
Consumer Staples & Discretionary Shares

Could Wesfarmers shares hit $100 in 2025?

Wesfarmers shares have risen 113% over the last five years.

Read more »

Interest rates written on top of pictures of houses on a computer.
Share Market News

3 ASX 200 consumer discretionary stocks to benefit from a rate cut

With an RBA rate cut expected this afternoon, it could be positive news for these three stocks. 

Read more »

Picture of a Domino's pizza.
Consumer Staples & Discretionary Shares

Domino's share price slides on major leadership shakeup

Domino’s announced a big leadership change this morning.

Read more »

Couple look at a bottle of wine while trying to decide what to buy.
Consumer Staples & Discretionary Shares

Treasury Wine shares: Buy, hold, or sell? Here's Macquarie's take

What is Macquarie forecasting for Treasury Wine shares amid the CEO’s unexpected exit?

Read more »