Aurizon Holdings Ltd (ASX: AZJ) is an S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) blue-chip share that is delivering investors an impressive amount of dividend income. The company has seen plenty of volatility over 2023 to date considering what it actually does. Fund manager L1 Capital thinks it's an opportunity.
For readers who don't know what this business does, it's Australia's largest rail freight operator. Each year it transports more than 250 million tonnes of Australian commodities, connecting miners, primary producers and industry with international and domestic markets.
It provides customers with integrated freight and logistics solutions across an extensive national rail and road network across Australia. The ASX 200 share also owns and operates one of the world's largest coal rail networks, linking approximately 50 mines with three major ports in Queensland.
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Why L1 likes this ASX 200 share
The fund manager likes the national rail operator with its network of over 5,000km of assets.
L1 said that earnings growth is underpinned by a "regulated network step-up, improved haulage volumes, and operational efficiencies."
The fund manager believes that the blue-chip company will achieve strong dividend growth and earnings growth. The investment team also suggested that it will "likely return to higher patio ratio [in the] medium-term."
L1 noted estimates that the company's earnings could grow from $1.4 billion in FY24 to $1.8 billion in FY26, which would be an increase of close to 30%. The fund manager also pointed to estimates that show the annual dividend payment could grow by over 70% between FY23 to FY26.
The rail company itself has said that in FY24 it could generate earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of between $1.59 billion to $1.68 billion. Its network revenue and EBITDA growth will be driven by a $125 million increase in the (regulated) maximum allowable revenue. Coal and bulk revenue and EBITDA are expected, with higher volumes forecast.
How big could the Aurizon dividend yield be?
Excluding franking credits, Aurizon's dividend yield using the FY23 payout is 4.2%. The dividend estimates that L1 referred to showed a possible dividend yield (excluding franking credits) of over 6% in FY25 from the ASX 200 blue-chip share.
Including franking credits, that implies the grossed-up dividend yield could be over 7.5%, assuming the franking percentage stays at 60% like the FY23 final dividend was.
The estimates that L1 shared suggested that the Aurizon dividend yield could be over 7% in FY26, or around 9% grossed up.
